Is political change coming to the South this week?

Local elections in Hampshire this week have the potential to bring some political upset and changes to the running of several councils.

Almost 2m voters will be able to vote for new councillors on May 7th with every seat on the county council up for election.

There are also some seats up on the borough and district councils in Havant, Gosport, Fareham, Winchester, Eastleigh, Hart, Rushmoor and Basingstoke & Deane.

And there's elections in Portsmouth and Southampton city councils and on the Isle of Wight too.

So what could happen?

The Conservatives have run Hampshire County Council since 1997, nearly 30 years. In fact, except for a four year gap in the 1990s, the Conservatives have been in charge since the creation of the authority in 1973.

The last time residents got to vote for their county councillors was in May 2021, when Boris Johnson was prime minister, the country had just been through its third covid lockdown and before any reporting of the Partygate scandal.

The Conservatives were in a good political position.

Since then we've had a general election, which the party lost, and saw several Conservative MPs lose Hampshire seats to Labour (4) and the Liberal Democrats (3).

At the district and borough level, the Conservatives lost control of Havant in 2024 after 23 years. They now run just four of the 11 councils in the county.

In the last 18 months, there's been the emergence of Reform UK, picking up Conservative supporters, including the MP for Fareham and Waterlooville Suella Braverman.

Only one Conservative councillor on Hampshire County Council has defected to Reform UK so far, but the party is standing a candidate in every seat next week.

The Liberal Democrats are hopeful of taking enough seats on Hampshire County Council to be able to take control.

They're banking on disgruntled Conservatives voters turning to them, as happened in Winchester in 2019, when they took control of the city council.

But the Lib Dems may find it harder to hold on to Portsmouth City Council, where they've been running the council as a minority administration since 2018.

Reform UK now have ten councillors there, eight defected from Portsmouth Independents, one Lib Dem moved party and one took the seat in a by-election in October 2025.

They're the official opposition and if they take more seats, they could be looking for a council leader.

And in Gosport, the Liberal Democrats are running the council without a majority after a by-election was won by Reform UK in January 2026.

They need to win seats to hold on.

Labour run Southampton City Council and Rushmoor Borough Council and are the largest party on Havant Borough Council, leading a coalition of the Lib Dems, Greens and an Independent.

In each ward in Havant, there's only one left leaning candidate on offer to voters this time.

The last two years has seen Labour's political popularity decline, potentially leaving their control of Southampton under threat.

In the last city council election, Labour lost seats to the Lib Dems (1) and Conservatives (1).

The rise in popularity of Reform UK and the Greens could take Labour voters this time.

It's worth remembering in Hampshire and on the Isle of Wight, Independents are important.

They run Isle of Wight Council, Basingstoke & Deane Borough and Community Campaign Hart have nearly a third of councillors on Hart District Council.

Independents do well in local elections areas where people are fed up of party politics and just want politicians to focus on local issues.

But will those voters see the Green Party or Reform as the alternative choice this time?

Whoever wins a seat on a council in Hampshire won't get too comfortable.

Hampshire County Council and all 11 district and borough councils are set to be abolished in two year's time.

In May 2027, we will vote for new unitary authorities, which will run all local services, replacing our current two-tier system.

The government has recently released a map of how the county will be carved up.

After a 'shadow year' to handover operations, our current councils will be dissolved in spring 2028.

In May 2028, we will also elect a new mayor for Hampshire and the Isle of Wight.