Win or lose? Parties share their predictions for London's elections

"We have a real chance of taking control of Merton Council."

"I expect and hope to win the mayor of Hackney."

"I'm going to say it now ... I think we'll win Havering."

These three quotes are from Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey, the Green Party leader Zack Polanski and Reform UK's Nigel Farage respectively.

All are looking to take chunks out of Labour and the Conservatives in the capital.

Making predictions is normally something of a mug's game for politicians.

For three party leaders to be this bold before local elections on 7 May is highly unusual - but it gives a flavour of the potential for change in London.

The predictions from the Tory leader and the chair of the Labour Party are much more cautious.

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch told me: "The only poll that matters is on 7 May and I am fighting for every single seat on every single council in London."

A very similar tone from Labour Party chair, Anna Turley, who was also not in the mood for confident statements.

She said: "I know we're fighting for every single vote because we've got a strong story to tell in London."

Their caution perhaps points to what Professor Tony Travers from London School of Economics has called a potential "political earthquake" in the capital.

If the polls and the pundits have called it correctly, the capital's mainly red and blue political map could end up multi-coloured on 8 May.

At the last elections in 2022, Labour won 21 of the capital's 32 councils.

The Conservatives won five, the Lib Dems three and and two were left in no overall control with no party managing to win a majority.

In Tower Hamlets, local party Aspire won the council and the directly-elected mayor.

Labour has never run more councils in London than their current total, and had more than 1,100 of the capital's 1,800 councillors in the 2022 election.

The Conservatives had never had fewer councillors in London - with just over 400.

The Lib Dems had 180 councillors - the Greens just 18.

This time round things could be very different. Labour face challenges on all fronts. From the Tories in places like Westminster, Wandsworth and Barnet that they won from them in 2022.

From the Greens in Hackney and Lewisham and a number of inner east London boroughs.

From Reform in places like Barking and Dagenham, and from independents in Newham and the Lib Dems in Merton.

The Conservative challenge looks equally difficult, with Reform putting pressure on in areas like Bexley, Bromley, Hillingdon and Croydon.

In a series of interviews with the party leaders and senior figures, we've been getting their views on what might happen and why people should vote for them.

KEMI BADENOCH

Leader of the Conservative Party

"We have moved from an era of two-party politics to multi-party politics and that means that we need to do things a bit differently.

"I want us to bring taxes down, but we have to find the savings for them. So abolishing stamp duty, abolishing business rates so that businesses can create jobs.

"If they can't create jobs, people are going to be out of work, they're going to go back on welfare. We want to be aspirational.

"Conservatives are coming back and we're going to start winning again."

SIR ED DAVEY

Leader of the Liberal Democrats

"We have a real chance of taking control of Merton, but if you look further into inner London and you look at places like Southwark, Lambeth and Camden and then to the west in Ealing, I think we're going to have a good night in many parts of London.

"We are going to make good gains, mostly at the expense of Labour in some of its strongholds but I imagine we will take seats off the Conservatives in many places too.

"If you want local councillors who are going to work with you, get things done, then we are the party for you."

NIGEL FARAGE

Leader of Reform UK

"I think the old red and blue that we all grew up with, that we all knew and understood that that was what London was, has gone.

"Even though these are local borough elections, the impact of national politics is enormous... there will be a lot of teal (Reform UK's colour) on the map.

"Metropolitan London is just a different place to the whole of the rest of the United Kingdom.

"I fully expect there are inner London boroughs where we are not going to win but we will still pick up votes."

ZACK POLANSKI

Leader of the Green Party of England and Wales

"What we're planning to do is replace the Labour Party and to stop Reform in its tracks and in lots of places across London, people are already done with the Labour Party.

"The Green Party offer hope and a plan... to build council homes, it's to make sure that we're bringing in rent controls, that we're advocating for cheaper transport both at the council level but frankly at the London Assembly and across the whole of London.

"And also making sure that our communities are served by councillors who are not in the pockets of property developers or corporate companies."

ANNA TURLEY

Chair of the Labour Party

"All incumbent governments face a challenge and the reality is we know people are desperate for change and we're working really hard to deliver the change that people really care about.

"That's protecting their families with the cost of living, investing in their communities so that when people walk out their front door into their estates and their streets in London, they can see clean green spaces, decent public services around them.

"We know we're facing opponents on all fronts, but none of those opponents have got an offer for people that really, really speaks to the issues that matter."

Find our more about the elections in 32 London boroughs here.

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