How did prediction markets get so big?

On prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket people are placing sometimes huge wagers on questions ranging from the sublime (‘will Jesus Christ return by the end of the year?’) to the very serious (‘will the US invade Iran?’).

Gambling is restricted across many US states but prediction markets are not classified as gambling. Their rapid rise over recent years speaks – some say – to an increasing nihilism among young men in particular, who feel they may as well try to profit from world events they cannot control.

Supporters say prediction markets are a smart way to make money. Critics say they are enabling insider trading. So what is the truth behind their rise? We speak to senior business journalist at the BBC, Mitch Labiak.

Producer: Hannah Moore

Mix: Travis Evans

Executive producers: Richard Fenton-Smith and James Shield

Senior news editor: China Collins

Photo: Polymarket logo appears in this illustration. Credit: Reuters/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo