Baroness Smith of Labour tells the BBC she's encouraged by the turnout following the official confirmation of 58.75% eligible voters casting their ballot.

"If we've managed to get that many Labour voters to go out and it's made the difference, that could be good news for us," she says.

But Reform's Danny Kruger refers to earlier remarks by Sir John Curtice, who says high turnouts occur in by-elections when there is an insurgent party, "and that's what's happening now".

"Whatever does happen though it seems obvious we've done extremely well," he says.

Image source, Reuters

Andrew Kerr
BBC Scotland political correspondent at the Aberdeen South count

The shadow Scottish Secretary Andrew Bowie was live on our TV programme when the Conservative Party chairman Kevin Hollinrake received a message saying his party had won the Aberdeen South seat.

Bowie hadn't heard anything as definitive - and quickly pulled out his earpiece at the end of the interview just to check what colleagues were saying.

The Conservatives are extremely positive and are thinking it certainly looks like they've won - smiles all round for them.

Meanwhile, the SNP are looking very glum in the corner of the count hall.

The official turnout for the Makerfield by-election was 58.75%, with 45,510 votes being cast.

Louise Cowie
BBC Scotland reporter at the count in Arbroath

In Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, the turnout has been confirmed as 31.36% - that is 23,827 voters.

James Cook
Scotland editor, at the count in Aberdeen

The last time the Conservatives gained a Westminster seat in a Scottish by-election was 1967 – the year the Beatles released Sgt Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band.

It looks like that long streak is about to end.

Both sides seem pretty certain that the Tories have won this seat. There are lots of glum Scottish National Party faces at the Aberdeen South count and plenty of Conservative smiles.

The SNP candidate, Richard Thomson, looks particularly disconsolate.

If victory for the Conservative candidate, Douglas Lumsden, is confirmed, it will be a boost for the party’s UK leader, Kemi Badenoch who visited Aberdeen South three times, campaigning hard on a promise to support the flagging oil and gas industry, which is based here.

Harry Farley
Political correspondent, reporting from Makerfield

Image source, EPA

A great tradition in British elections has happened - the arrival of the Monster Raving Loony Party.

To great cheers in this auditorium, Howling Laud Hope - complete with enormous yellow rosette and cowboy-style hat - poses for the cameras and begins strolling around the room.

Andrew Kerr
BBC Scotland political correspondent, reporting from Aberdeen South

Image source, PA

The SNP candidate Richard Thomson has arrived at the Aberdeen South count and was greeted by downbeat activists.

He was hugged by supporters and party workers but there was no cheering.

The SNP are said to be very pessimistic so far, with sampling indicating the Conservatives are in the lead.

The Tories, meanwhile, are optimistic - with their candidate Douglas Lumsden looking focused as he strides around the hall.

The Greens are standing a candidate here - and some activists made an interesting comparison.

They say the Conservatives have played this like a traditional Liberal Democrat election - "only we can beat x here".

Their sampling indicated the Conservatives "have blown the SNP out the water" in the city's suburbs - with the Reform UK and Labour vote collapsing to ensure pro-union voters coalesce around the Conservatives.

Image source, PA

Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy says Labour always knew it would be a tough fight in Makerfield, but it is too early to say what the result is.

But she adds that there is "no question" that Andy Burnham has been pulling back votes from Reform UK.

Speaking from the count, Nandy adds there is "no panic here", and Labour is not being complacent.

Nandy explains that she expects Keir Starmer to speak to Burnham if he wins the by-election.

The BBC's election guru John Curtice says there's talk of voter turnout in Makerfield being between 60 and 65% - compared to the 52.5% turnout for the 2024 general election.

"The last time the turnout was higher in a by-election than in the preceding general election you have to go back to 1982 and the by-election Glasgow Hillhead," Curtice tells Laura Kuenssberg on our by-election special.

"It's well over 40 years since we've had an increase in turnout in a by-election."

He says that if the turnout was at the upper end of the estimate - "ie close to 65%" - that would be the biggest rise in turnout, compared to the preceding general election, since the 1958 Torrington by-election in Devon.

It seems that it's not just the BBC's live team relying on sugar as we await the results overnight - for one member of the Labour Party voting team in Wigan, a chocolate bar appears to be doing the trick...

Image source, Getty Images

Image source, BBC Newsnight

Labour MP Jess Phillips - who recently resigned as safeguarding minister - says she'd like to see Keir Starmer recognise the risk of continuing as a "very unpopular prime minister".

"What I would like to see, from a very dignified man, the prime minister, is a recognition of that himself - the risk to the country of taking an unpopular leader into the next general election," she tells Laura Kuenssberg on our by-election special (which you can watch at the top of the page).

"Personally, I would really like to see him be the person who comes to that conclusion. Because I think he deserves that," Phillips adds.

Responding to Phillips, Labour peer Angela Smith says Starmer is "not getting the recognition he deserves as Labour leader" and that he is driven by making a difference to people's lives.

Phillips later says while she hopes Starmer is given the opportunity for a "dignified" conclusion, it's possible we see "chaos ensuing, the government collapsing, [and] ministers walking out".

James Cook
Scotland editor, at the count in Aberdeen

Counting is under way in two by-elections on the east coast of Scotland after the sitting MPs were elected to the Scottish Parliament.

At the 2024 general election, the SNP won Aberdeen South, and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, with Labour in second place.

Since then the prime minister's popularity has slumped; the SNP has been dogged by questions about its former chief executive Peter Murrell embezzling more than £400,000 from the party; and Reform UK has become a serious player in Scottish politics.

But here in Aberdeen, it's the Conservatives who sound hopeful of victory.

The UK party leader, Kemi Badenoch, made three campaigning trips to Aberdeen South, promising to revive the UK's declining oil and gas industry, which is based here.

Tonight, one senior Conservative told me they were "cautiously optimistic" - while an SNP source said there had clearly been a "strong tactical Tory vote."

Image source, PA Media

Conservative Party chairman Kevin Hollinrake tells the BBC his money's on Andy Burnham to win.

"Makerfield was never going to be our seat," he says, adding the Tories ran a good campaign with former Wigan Mayor Michael Winstanley.

"I think Andy Burnham will win," he says - adding the Tories are focusing on the result in Aberdeen South, where Conservative Party MSP Douglas Lumsden is running.

Image source, PA

The counting of votes is well under way in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry and Aberdeen South.

Our reporter in Arbroath, Louise Cowie, says, anecdotally, the turnout looks low.

Image source, PA Wire

One of Reform UK's eight members of parliament, Danny Kruger, says it's "very unfortunate that [there are] splinter groups on the right who are getting in the way of Reform's victory".

On our election special programme, Laura Kuenssberg puts it to Kruger that Restore Britain - a party founded by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe - could take a chunk out of Reform's vote share in Makerfield.

"I suspect the [Restore vote] is more of a bubble than the reporting suggests, because it is a very online phenomenon, support for Restore," Kruger says.

As well as our live reporting on this page, a BBC by-election special is running throughout the night.

You can watch or listen at the top of the page by pressing the "watch & listen" tab.

Labour heavyweight Lord David Blunkett, a party member for 60 years and home secretary under Tony Blair, says - whatever happens tonight - his party is in "a deep mess".

He tells BBC Newsnight that the party is in a "massive pickle" as the current government is "deeply unpopular".

To make this Labour government work over the next two years, he says, it "would have to have a complete rethink".

Blunkett says there hasn't been a moment of self-reflection for the party since the local elections in May -which he says would happen if a leadership challenge began.

As a reminder, Andy Burnham is expected to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership - if he wins in Makerfield tonight.

Image source, Reuters

Labour's Anna Turley has defended Keir Starmer's absence in the Makerfield campaign, saying the prime minister has been "getting on with running the country".

"We've seen him particularly this week in France with the G7, he's focusing on the really important things the country needs," the minister tells Newsnight.

"At a time of real global insecurity, the prime minister is representing the United Kingdom on the world stage ... that's where you'd want him to be."

This week the prime minister, who faces a potential leadership challenge if Burnham wins, indicated that he would offer Burnham a cabinet job if he wins in Makerfield, telling reporters: "I hope he wins the by-election and he'll play a big part in the Labour government."

Louise Hosie
BBC Scotland reporter

Aberdeen South is at the heart of the offshore energy industry - but voters care about what happens on dry land too.

The constituency covers part of the city's commuter belt - Peterculter, Milltimber and Bieldside - as well as the more urban areas near the harbour, such as Torry.

That's where many residents are still dealing with the fallout from the discovery that their homes were built with a potentially dangerous building material.

Meanwhile, £420m has been invested into the South Harbour development at the nearby Port of Aberdeen in recent years.

It now means many large cruise ships can dock in the Granite City, but the port has still been affected by the fall in oil and gas activity.

Harry Farley
Political correspondent, reporting from Makerfield

Both Labour and Reform believe the turnout will be high - higher than the 52% it was during the general election.

At the moment that is just their predictions. It hasn’t been verified as counting is still under way.

But, as my colleague Nicholas Watt has also reported, some Labour sources believe it could be between 60% and 65%.

That would be high for a by-election - although given the stakes and wall-to-wall campaigning over the last few weeks, perhaps unsurprising.

Image source, PA Media