Conservative Party chairman Kevin Hollinrake tells the BBC his money's on Andy Burnham to win.

"Makerfield was never going to be our seat," he says, adding the Tories ran a good campaign with former Wigan Mayor Michael Winstanley.

"I think Andy Burnham will win," he says - adding the Tories are focusing on the result in Aberdeen South, where Conservative Party MSP Douglas Lumsden is running.

Image source, PA

The counting of votes is well under way in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry and Aberdeen South.

Our reporter in Arbroath, Louise Cowie, says, anecdotally, the turnout looks low.

Image source, PA Wire

One of Reform UK's eight members of parliament, Danny Kruger, says it's "very unfortunate that [there are] splinter groups on the right who are getting in the way of Reform's victory".

On our election special programme, Laura Kuenssberg puts it to Kruger that Restore Britain - a party founded by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe - could take a chunk out of Reform's vote share in Makerfield.

"I suspect the [Restore vote] is more of a bubble than the reporting suggests, because it is a very online phenomenon, support for Restore," Kruger says.

As well as our live reporting on this page, a BBC by-election special is running throughout the night.

You can watch or listen at the top of the page by pressing the "watch & listen" tab.

Labour heavyweight Lord David Blunkett, a party member for 60 years and home secretary under Tony Blair, says - whatever happens tonight - his party is in "a deep mess".

He tells BBC Newsnight that the party is in a "massive pickle" as the current government is "deeply unpopular".

To make this Labour government work over the next two years, he says, it "would have to have a complete rethink".

Blunkett says there hasn't been a moment of self-reflection for the party since the local elections in May -which he says would happen if a leadership challenge began.

As a reminder, Andy Burnham is expected to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership - if he wins in Makerfield tonight.

Image source, Reuters

Labour's Anna Turley has defended Keir Starmer's absence in the Makerfield campaign, saying the prime minister has been "getting on with running the country".

"We've seen him particularly this week in France with the G7, he's focusing on the really important things the country needs," the minister tells Newsnight.

"At a time of real global insecurity, the prime minister is representing the United Kingdom on the world stage ... that's where you'd want him to be."

This week the prime minister, who faces a potential leadership challenge if Burnham wins, indicated that he would offer Burnham a cabinet job if he wins in Makerfield, telling reporters: "I hope he wins the by-election and he'll play a big part in the Labour government."

Louise Hosie
BBC Scotland reporter

Aberdeen South is at the heart of the offshore energy industry - but voters care about what happens on dry land too.

The constituency covers part of the city's commuter belt - Peterculter, Milltimber and Bieldside - as well as the more urban areas near the harbour, such as Torry.

That's where many residents are still dealing with the fallout from the discovery that their homes were built with a potentially dangerous building material.

Meanwhile, £420m has been invested into the South Harbour development at the nearby Port of Aberdeen in recent years.

It now means many large cruise ships can dock in the Granite City, but the port has still been affected by the fall in oil and gas activity.

Harry Farley
Political correspondent, reporting from Makerfield

Both Labour and Reform believe the turnout will be high - higher than the 52% it was during the general election.

At the moment that is just their predictions. It hasn’t been verified as counting is still under way.

But, as my colleague Nicholas Watt has also reported, some Labour sources believe it could be between 60% and 65%.

That would be high for a by-election - although given the stakes and wall-to-wall campaigning over the last few weeks, perhaps unsurprising.

Image source, PA Media

Nicholas Watt
Political editor, BBC Newsnight

If Andy Burnham wins - and of course it is a big if - you could potentially see the dislodging of a prime minister.

I am hearing cautious optimism from the Labour camp. They say they believe the Labour vote has come out. It is a big operation here with 70 contacts per minute at one stage, I was told.

They believe it is a high turnout for a by-election, between 60-65%. But the Labour view is if the voter turnout goes above 65% that is bad news - as it would suggest that Reform UK is getting people out who would not normally vote.

What are we hearing from Reform UK? They believe this has been their strongest ever performance in percentage share in any by-election. But they also say it is too close to call.

I understand that Nigel Farage spent three and a half hours on the streets knocking on doors this afternoon. He has told colleagues it is looking good.

Image source, Reuters

Here are some comments from the main players now votes are being counted.

Labour's deputy leader Lucy Powell says: "We knew this would be a tough fight, given Reform did so well here just a few weeks ago, but the Labour movement came together to show we are well up for that fight."

The party's candidate, Andy Burnham, writes on X: "We ran a very positive one and can be proud of it!"

Reform's candidate Rob Kenyon has also posted, saying: "I am confident of a big vote for Reform tonight."

Some more fighting talk from Conservative's chariman Kevin Hollinrake, who says: "We always knew these by-elections would be tough, but we are up for the fight."

A Green Party spokesperson says: "Whatever the outcome of this by-election, it's clear people are desperate for real change... the Green Party are standing for a real positive alternative and are alone up to the job of taking on Reform and giving people hope."

Image source, PA Media

Image source, PA Media

The counting process is under way in the Makerfield by-election. Boxes have arrived at the count at The Edge conference centre in Wigan.

Verification of ballots started shortly after 22:00.

Makerfield - including under its previous name of Ince - has been Labour-held for more than 120 years.

But the growing Reform vote in the area has given Nigel Farage's party encouragement that they could win the constituency.

Labour held the seat with a majorities of over 12,000 in 2010, 2015 and 2017 but its majority was cut to 4,740 at the 2019 general election.

At the last general election in 2024, Labour held Makerfield with a majority of 5,399. Reform UK won nearly a third of the vote share, 12,803 votes, to move ahead of the Conservatives.

At the recent local elections, Nigel Farage's party also swept the board, winning all seats up for grabs in Makerfield.

Andrew Kerr
BBC Scotland political correspondent in Aberdeen

There’s been a lot of intrigue as to how this might play out in Aberdeen South.

The Conservatives were hot on the heels of Stephen Flynn in the Holyrood election in Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine.

Its constituency boundaries are different from the Westminster Aberdeen South seat - but the Tories saw potential, particularly over the issue of the future of North Sea oil and gas.

New drilling licences are reserved to Westminster but they say the Scottish government’s lack of support for the industry has contributed to its demise - whereas the SNP hit back and say the Conservative windfall tax has cost many jobs.

The SNP have also been deeply embroiled in the Peter Murrell scandal, the party’s former chief executive who embezzled funds.

There’s a real concern in the SNP that their voters will stay at home and it means they’re not overly confident.

The Conservatives said they were "throwing the kitchen sink" at this - evidenced by the UK leader Kemi Badenoch coming up to visit three times.

They’re not confident of winning but see a route to victory, particularly as Reform UK seem to be more interested in sending their troops to Makerfield.

If the Conservatives do win, it’s a little bit of history.

They tell me they last gained a Westminster Scottish by-election in Glasgow Pollok back in 1967.

Louise Cowie
Reporting from the Saltire Centre in Arbroath

Image source, PA

The polls have closed in the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election.

This is a huge constituency which stretches way beyond the two coastal towns. It takes in city and rural votes too.

Housing estates in the east end of Dundee, where deprivation is high, are covered as are agricultural idylls in Angus.

The seat was first contested in 2024, when it was won by the SNP's Stephen Gethins.

It's up for grabs again after Gethins resigned, having won a seat at Holyrood during the recent Scottish Parliament elections.

There are five candidates standing, representing the SNP, Labour, the Tories, the Lib Dems and Reform.

Labour finished just 859 votes behind the SNP two years ago. But much has changed since then, including the rise of Reform.

Harry Farley
Political correspondent

Welcome to The Edge arena in south Wigan. The music venue-cum-conference centre is now the stage for a political spectacle.

Hyperbole upon hyperbole has been heaped on this collection of towns over the last few weeks; seismic, historic, momentous - take your pick.

If Andy Burnham wins tonight it will almost certainly trigger an attempt to overthrow the prime minister. If he loses to Reform, the crisis in the Labour Party will be such that most of its MPs seem unwilling even to consider it.

Burnham's team are confident. One cabinet minister told me they had knocked on every single door in the constituency at least eight times during the campaign.

Sources in Reform believe it is too tight to call. One unknown factor is Restore Britain - the party to the right of Reform UK led by Rupert Lowe have a real presence here and threaten to take votes away from Nigel Farage's candidate.

Whatever happens the result here in the next few hours will shape British politics for months - and possibly years - to come.

The most important by-election in my lifetimepublished at 22:00 BST

22:00 BST

Chris Mason
Political editor

I love by-elections and have covered dozens. But I have never reported on one quite like this one.

I can’t claim to have been in the count centre for every single one of the 164 Westminster by-elections in my lifetime – I was born in April 1980 – but I would say without hesitation this is the most important one in those 46 and a bit years.

And it is important, irrespective of the outcome. Labour have been consistently upbeat about their prospects in Makerfield for a good few weeks now. They have flooded the constituency today and I hear they are confident plenty of those who said they would vote Labour have done.

The uncertainty, for them, is how successful or otherwise Reform has been at getting out its vote – including folk who may not usually vote. The additional curveball in this race is how many votes Restore Britain attract – the party set up by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe.

If Andy Burnham wins, as many expect, the drama around the Labour leadership – and therefore who is our prime minister – will crank up. But here’s the thing: if Andy Burnham loses, it will also crank up.

Supporters of the prime minister are already ringing round, talking up his record and talking up his determination. We can expect to hear from him in the morning reacting to the result.

In short, the importance of this by-election rests on the simple truth that tens of thousands of folk in a collection of places broadly to the south of Wigan – Winstanley, Platt Bridge, Hindley, Ashton in Makerfield and others – have an outsized say on who our next prime minister might be.

That is why the next few hours matter. But the result here will have implications for us all.

The polls have now closed in the constituencies of Makerfield, Aberdeen South and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry.

Counting is now under way - with results expected in the early hours of Friday.

In our next post, our political editor Chris Mason explains why the Makerfield by-election is like no other.

More than 30 polling stations opened across the Makerfield constituency at 07:00 BST, with the final votes being cast in the next few minutes.

As always, many voters have been accompanied by their pets - with Indie the St Bernard among those stopping to pose for a photo.

Image source, EPA/Shutterstock

Image source, EPA/Shutterstock

Image source, Reuters

Image source, PA Media

Polling stations in Makerfield, Aberdeen South, and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry close at 22:00 BST - although anyone who was in the queue at that time will still have been able to vote.

Counting then begins.

Polling station staff take the sealed ballot boxes to the count centre - often a large hall, such as a sports centre or school hall.

Ballot boxes are distributed among the count staff and opened for the first time in view of candidates and agents, the Electoral Commission explains.

First, verification takes place to ensure the number of ballot papers in the box matches the number issued at the polling station during the day.

Ballot papers are then counted, alongside postal votes.

Image source, PA Media

While voters head to the polls in Makerfield, north-west England, there are also two by-elections taking place in Scotland:

Aberdeen South

The by-election was called to replace Stephen Flynn, the SNP's former Westminster leader, who was elected to the Scottish Parliament last month.

In order to take his seat there, he had to step down from Westminster. Flynn is now MSP for Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine.

Arbroath and Broughty Ferry

The SNP's Stephen Gethins stepped down from his Westminster seat after being elected MSP for Dundee City East.