Me zai rage a ƙarfin NATO idan Amurka ta fice daga kawancen?

Ƙungiyar ƙawancen tsaro ta 'North Atlantic Treaty Organization' wato Nato, ta sake shiga wani yanayi bayan da ƙasashen Turai suka ƙi shiga yaƙin Amurka da Isra'ila kan Iran.

Shugaban Amurka, Donald Trump ya sha nanata rashin gamsuwarsa da ƙawayen Amurka na Turai a hirarrakin kafofin yaɗa labarai da saƙonnin sada zumunta da ya yake wallafawa.

Har ma ya taɓa yin barazanar janyewa daga ƙawancen tsaron na Nato.

Amurka ce ke bai wa ƙungiyar tallafin kuɗi da fasahar soji mafi yawa. Don haka ake ganin ko ƙungiyar za ta iya dogara da kanta bayan janyewar tallafin na Amurka.

Wace ce NATO kuma yaushe aka kafa ta?

An kafa ƙungiyar NATO a shekarar 1949. Kuma ta fara ne da ƙasashe 12, ciki har da Amurka da Birtaniya da Kanada da kuma Faransa.

Ɗaya daga cikin dokokin ƙungiyar shi ne idan aka kai wa ɗaya daga cikinsu hari, to sauran za su taimaka mata wajen kare kanta.

Maƙasudin kafa ƙungiyar shi ne dakatar da faɗaɗa yankunan tsohuwar Tarayyar Soviet, wadda haɗakar ce ta masu bin tsarin gurguzu da Rasha ta mamaye.

Bayan rushewar tarayyar Soviet a 1991 mafi yawan ƙasashen gabashin Turai, irin su Albania da Bulgaria da Hungary da Poland da Jamhuriyar Czech da Slovakia da Romania da Lithuania da Latvia da kuma Estonia sun shiga ƙawancen NATO.

Ƙasashen Sweden da Finland, waɗanda suka ɗauki gomman shekaru a matsayin ƴan baruwanmu, sun miƙa buƙatunsu na zama mambobin ƙungiyar a watan Mayun 2022, bayan da Rasha ta mamaye Ukraine.

A yanzu haka ƙungiyar na da mambobi 32 daga ƙasashen Turai da Arewacin Amurka.

Ƙungiyar Nato ba ta da sojojinta na ƙashin kai, sai dai mambobinta su riƙa amfani da sojojinta don suna ɗaukar matakan soji a tare, idan wani abu ya faru.

Dakarun NATO sun fara shiga yaƙi a 1994, lokacin da jirgin yaƙin Amurka ya harbo jiragen Sabiya da ke aikin kakkaɓo jiragen Bosnia.

Har yanzu buƙatar Ukraine ta shiga Ukraine na nan ajiye ba a duba ta ba.

Kuma yanzu haka ƙungiyar ba ta aike da dakarunta zuwa Ukraine ba, sannan ba ta sanya dokar haramta wa jiragen Rasha keta sararin samaniyar ƙasashen ƙungiyar, a wani mataki na kauce wa yaƙi kai-tsaye da Rasha, wadda ta mallaki makamin nukiliya.

Kodayake wasu mambobin ƙungiyar sun riƙa aika wa Ukraine makamai da kayan aiki.

Kare Turai

A matsayinta na ƙawancen soji, NATO na da ƙarfin gaske, amma masana na cewa idan Amurka ta fice daga ƙawancen, ƙarfin ƙungiyar zai yi matuƙar raguwa.

A watan Disamban 2025, kamfanin dillancin labarai na Reuters, ya bayar da rahoton cewa kusan dakarun Amurka, 68,000 ne ke zaune a sansanin soji 31 da wasu cibiyoyin soji 19 a faɗin ƙasashen ƙungiyar.

"A halin yanzu, tasirin Amurka a ƙungiyar NATO ba ya misaltuwa ta fuskar makamai da dakaru,'' a cewar Dokta Tory Taussig, daraktar wata cibiya mai lura ƙawancen tsaron a Amurka.

Ms Taussig a baya ya kasance mai lura da fannonin Turai da Nato a hukumar tsaron Amurka.

Ms Taussig ta shaida wa BBC cewa idan babu tallafin Amurka, Turai za ta sha wahala wajen cike gurbin wasu muhimman fannoni kamar "muhimman hanyoyin sufuri da fannin tattara bayanan sirri da sanya idanu da tantance bayanan sirri da tsaron makaman linzami''.

Haka shi ma Dr. Gavin Hall, malami a sashen nazarin tsaron duniya a Jami'ar Strathclyde da ke Glasgow, ya amince cewa janyewar daga ƙawancen babban koma-baya ne ga tsaron Turai.

"Amurka ta kasance wadda tafi bayar da tallafi ga tsaron wasu daga cikin ƙasashen NATO,'' kamar yadda ya shaida wa BBC.

Gavin Hall ya ce ƙasashen Turai sun san cewa a matakin farko tattara jami'ai da tura su a cikin ƙawancen, aiki ne na Turai, kuma mambobin NATO za su iya tabbatar da ƙarfinsu ba tare da taimakon Amurka ba.

Ya ƙara da cewa: "Ayyukan NATO, a ƙasashen gabashin Turai ko sintiri a tekun Mediterranean, duk tana yi ba tare da hannun Amurka ba.''

Nawa mambobin NATO ke kashewa a tsaronsu?

Donald Trump na cikin shakka game da ƙawancen kuma yana sukar yadda ƙungiyar ta gaza ƙara yawan kuɗin da take kashewa.

A lokacin yaƙin neman zaɓe a wa'adinsa na biyu a 2024, ya ce idan an zaɓe shi, zai zuga Rasha ta kai wa ƙasashen NATO hari, musamman waɗanda ke kashe abin da bai kai kashi biyu cikin 100 na GDPnsu ba.

A 2014, NATO ta buƙaci duka mambobinta su kashe aƙalla kashi biyu cikin 100 na GDPnsu kan tsaro.

Kuma zuwa 2025 kowace ƙasa ta yi hakan.

A yanzu sabon burin ƙungiyar shi ne ƙara kuɗin da suke kashewa a fannin tsaro zuwa kashi 5 cikin 100 na GDPnsu nan da 2035.

A cewar rahoton cibiyar tsaro ta duniya da ke Stockholm, Amurka ce ta bayar da kashi 66 cikin 100 na abinda ƙungiyar ta kashe kan tsaronta a 2024.

Ta ya NATO za ta inganta tsaronta don kauce wa barazanar Rasha?

A 2023, kwamandojin ƙungiyar NATO sun amince da cikakken tsarin daƙile hare-haren Rasha a yankunan Arctic da Arewacin Atlantika da tsakiyar Turai da yankin Mediterranean.

A shekarar da ta gabata, ƙungiyar ta bayyana ƙara yawan dakarunta masu jiran ko ta kwana daga 40,000 zuwa sama da 300,000.

Haka kuma ƙungiyar ta ƙarfafa tsaronta ta hanyar girke dakarun yaƙi a gabashin duniya, da suka yi iyaka da Rasha.

Duk bayan shekara uku, NATO kan yi babban atisayen soji, da ya ƙunshi dakaru 90,000 daga ƙasashen ƙungiyar 32. A shekarar 2027 ake sa ran za ta yi atisayenta na gaba.

Mr. Hall ya ce akwai buƙatar ƙungiyar ta ƙarfafa kanta da makamin nukiliya.

Faransa da Birtaniya na da makamin nukiliya, amma ko an haɗa makaman nasu ƙalilan ne idan aka kwakwanta da na Rasha.

Rabuwa ce ''mafi hatsari''?

Sojojin Amurka, kan yi atisayen soji tare da haɗin gwiwar wata ƙasa ko wasu ƙasashe a lokaci guda, domin taimaka wa ƙasashen inganta tsaronsu

Kasancewa mamba a ƙungiyar NATO, ya bai wa Amurka damar shiga wasu sansanonin sojin Turai.

"In ba don ƙawance ba, dole sai Amurka ta cimma yarjejeniyar tsaro da wasu ƙasashen kafin ta iya amfani da sansanoninsu'', in ji Ms Taussig.

Ta ce duk da cewa Amurka ta ƙulla yarjejeniyoyi da mafi yawan ƙasashen Turai, amma tana buƙatar sabbin ƙawance da ƙasashen da ba ta da yarjejeniyar tsaro da su.

Ta ci gaba da cewa, duk wani yunƙurin Trump na aiwatar da barazanarsa ta janyewa daga ƙungiyar ka iya yin tasiri ta fuskar soji da siyasa.

"A siyasance, idan Amurka ta fice daga ƙungiyar, zai zame mata matsala ga haɗin kanta, ta fuskar tsaro kuma barazana daga Rasha da sauran abokan hamayyarta,'' in ji ta.

Sai dai Mista Hall ya ce yana tsammanin Donald Trump na amfani da barazanar ficewa daga ƙawancen ne domin samun haɗin kai kamar yadda ya yi kan Greenland, wanda ya ce yana son mallaka domin tsaron Amurka ko kasuwanci.

Ya ƙara da cewa idan har Amurka ta janye hakan ka iya zama barazana ga kowane ɓangare.