Is the UK heading for another drought this summer?

Dry, cracked earth with a few blades of grass coming through in a field which seems to be greener further back. There is a house and trees in the background with blue sky above Image source, BBC Weather Watcher / alpaca lady
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Dry, cracked earth is already evident in some places, like here in Cambridgeshire

BySarah Keith-LucasandSimon King Lead Weather Presenters
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Some parts of the UK have had one of the driest Aprils on record, with less than 1mm of rainfall.

And whilst water supplies are currently at normal levels, some people will draw comparisons with this time last year when some places started heading into drought.

It is by no means a nationwide picture with Scotland and Northern Ireland seeing most of the rain with above average figures.

Winter rainfall helped replenish water supplies after 2025's dry summer but water stocks can fluctuate quickly with some river levels already starting to fall, raising concerns about what might happen in the months ahead.

'Water scarcity is already a real issue'

Man stands in a tree-lined field holding a handful of winter barley Image source, BBC/Alex Milner
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Andrew Blenkiron, Managing Director of Elveden Farms near Thetford, has had to start watering his crops earlier than normal

Overall the UK has received 23% less rain than average according to the official Met Office figures.

England has received just over a third of its average April rainfall. Parts of East Anglia and the South East, even less than that.

Provisional data for Shoeburyness in Essex for example shows that it has been the driest April on record, receiving only 0.6mm of rain recorded in the month - just 2% of the monthly average.

With less than 5% of average rainfall widely across Cambridgeshire and Bedfordshire, both places have experienced one of their driest Aprils on record.

Andrew Blenkiron, who manages 10,000 acres of farmland on the borders of Norfolk and Suffolk, told BBC Weather that, after a dry March, they only received 2mm of rainfall in April compared to around 50mm on average.

It means that they've had to start applying water to their land about two weeks earlier than usual and could have a big impact on this years crop, "Basically it's dying on its feet. If we don't get that rain we find yield potential drops to about 50% of its maximum."

With four consecutive weeks of less than 10mm of rain in England, the Environment Agency said "river flows are now decreasing at the majority of sites."

Simon Fluendy, of Southern Water, which controls water supplies in parts of Kent, Sussex, Hampshire and the Isle of Wight, said: "Water scarcity is a real issue in the south-east." Fluendy added that wet weather earlier in the year does not mean "there is no risk of drought."

Huge contrasts across the UK

While southern and eastern areas have been dry, much wetter weather has been experienced further north.

Successive low pressure systems have delivered most of the rain the UK has seen in April to Scotland and Northern Ireland.

In the Highlands and Western Isles, the wettest parts of Scotland, more than a month and a half's worth of rain has fallen.

Tiree in the Inner Hebrides has recorded 124mm of rain. That's 175% of average April rainfall.

Most of the water supply in northern areas of the UK comes from surface water - reservoirs and rivers.

These sources can be quick to respond to changing weather patterns with catchments going into and out of drought relatively quickly.

Scottish Water reports that water resource levels in Scotland are around 95%.

Below average spring rainfall leaves some areas 'water-stressed'

Map of UK showing different locations with a variety of percentages. Wettest place is Kinlochewe with 117% of spring rainfall whilst driest place is Shoeburyness with just 11%
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Percentages of spring rainfall received so far compared to what is average for the whole of spring

Despite some wet weather in March, the dry April means that average rainfall for spring as a whole has so far fallen well short in southern and eastern England.

Shoeburyness in Essex has only seen 11% of its average spring rainfall.

Fluendy says there has been a recovery of underground aquifers, rivers and reservoirs. But increasing threats from climate change, population growth and rising demand for water - especially during hot weather - leave the region "officially water-stressed".

However, more than two-thirds of these water sources are currently classed as normal for the time of year, and soil moisture remains wetter than average across most of England.

Is there any rain on the way in May?

After some very dry and sunny conditions for the closing weeks of April, high pressure is replaced by low pressure in early May. This will bring the threat of showers and possible thunderstorms.

For the longer term it may become wetter by the middle of the month.

Keep up to date with our latest thoughts in the BBC Weather Monthly Outlook.

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