Kasashen da darajar kuɗinsu ta faɗi da waɗanda ta tashi sanadiyyar yaƙin Iran

Lokacin da rikicin da ya haɗa Amurka da Isra'ila da Iran ya ɓarke a ƙarshen watan Fabrairu, tasirinsa bai tsaya a Gabas ta Tsakiya kaɗai ba.

A yayin da rikicin ya kawo cikas ga jigilar kaya ta teku da kuma zirga-zirgar kasuwanci a duniya, farashin mai ya tashi sosai.

Wannan kuma ya janyo hauhawar farashin kaya a kasuwannin duniya, abin da ya girgiza tattalin arzikin ƙasashe da dama.

A irin wannan yanayi na rashin tabbas, wasu masu zuba jari sun guji saka kuɗi a kasuwanni masu haɗari, musamman a ƙasashe masu tasowa.

Maimakon haka, sun koma saka kuɗinsu a dalar Amurka, wadda ake ɗauka a matsayin amintaccen mafakar kuɗi a lokutan rikici.

Wannan faɗuwa da tashin darajar kuɗi ya yi tasiri kai tsaye ga darajar kuɗaɗen ƙasashe da dama.

Wasu kuɗaɗen ƙasashe sun yi rauni sosai, wasu kuma sun kasance cikin sauyin da ba tabbas, yayin da wasu kaɗan suka samu ƙarin ƙarfi.

Masanin tattalin arziki ɗan Brazil André Perfeito, wanda ke jagorantar kamfanin ba da shawara APCE, ya ce hauhawar farashin mai "yana shafar kowa, amma faɗuwa da tashin darajar kuɗi na iya ƙara tsananta ko kuma rage wannan tasiri."

Idan aka haɗa wannan da wasu abubuwan da ke shafar tattalin arziki, tambaya ita ce: mene ne wannan faɗuwa da tashin darajar kuɗi ke nufi ga ƙasashe daban-daban da kuma rayuwar talakawan da ke cikinsu?

Waɗanda abin ya fi shafa sosai

Ƙasashen da ke shigo da makamashi da yawa, musamman mai, suna daga cikin waɗanda kuɗaɗensu suka fi fuskantar matsin lamba.

Cikin waɗannan ƙasashe akwai Indiya, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand da Masar.

Dukkansu sun fara fuskantar ƙarin matsin tattalin arziki sakamakon tashin farashin mai da kuma ƙarancin samun kuɗin waje.

Yayin da masu zuba jari ke mayar da kuɗaɗensu zuwa dalar Amurka, buƙatar wasu kuɗaɗen ƙasashe ta ragu.

Wannan ya sa darajarsu ta fadi. Idan darajar kuɗi yana faɗuwa da tashi, biyan bashi da aka karɓa da dalar Amurka ma yana ƙara tsada.

Haka kuma, mai da sauran kayayyaki da ake shigo da su daga waje waɗanda sau da yawa ana farashinsu da dalar Amurka ne musamman saboda tasirin rikice-rikice da ke hana zirga-zirga a mashigar Hormuz suna ƙara tsada idan darajar kuɗin ƙasa ta ragu.

Wannan na nufin abubuwan da ake shigo da su kamar makamashi, robobi da takin zamani suna yin tsada.

Daga nan kuma, farashin abinci da kayayyakin yau da kullum a kasuwanni yana ƙaruwa.

A Indiya, rupee ya ragu da kusan kashi 5 cikin 100 a kan dalar Amurka tun bayan fara rikicin, inda ya kai matakin da bai taɓa kaiwa ba a lokuta da dama yayin da farashin mai ke tashi.

Ko da kafin rikicin, kuɗin Indiya ya riga ya fara yin rauni, amma wannan ya ƙara tsananta yanayin.

Wasu bankunan ƙasashe sun mayar da martani ta hanyar ƙara yawan riba da kuma sayar da dalar Amurka da aka ajiye domin tallafa wa kuɗin ƙasarsu.

Bankin Indonesia ya yi amfani da duka matakan da suka haɗa da sayar da daloli a kai-a kai tare da sayen rupiah domin ƙara buƙata da ɗaga darajarsa.

Idan aka ƙara yawan ribar banki, mutane suna samun riba mai yawa a ajiyarsu. Amma a gefe guda, hakan yana nufin biyan basussuka kamar lamunin gida da sauran rance zai ƙara tsada.

Hawa da saukar darajar kuɗaɗe

Wasu kuɗaɗen ƙasashe kuwa sun fi fama da karyewar darajar kudi sosai, suna hawa da sauka cikin sauri.

Ƙasashen da abin ya fi shafa sun hada da Afrika ta Kudu da Colombia da Chile da Mexico.

Yawanci irin waɗannan kuɗaɗe suna faɗuwa da tashi idan masu zuba jari suka koma amfani da dalar Amurka, amma suna iya farfadowa idan farashin kayayyakin masarufi kamar mai ya tashi ko kuma masu zuba jari suka sake nuna sha'awa.

Ƙasashe masu fitar da makamashi irin su Brazil da Malaysia sun samu dan anfani daga tashin farashin mai, wanda ya ƙara kuɗaden shiga da sha'awar masu zuba jari.

Bankuna kamar Goldman Sachs da Bank of America sun bayyana cewa ana yawan sayen takardun bashin gwamnati da hannayen jari na Brazil.

Sai dai masana sun ce hauhawar farashin mai na iya ƙara tashin farashi a Brazil, wanda zai iya hana rage kuɗin ruwa da kuma shafar shigowar jari.

Haka kuma Brazil na shigo da man fetur da dizal daga waje, abin da ke ƙara tsadar mai a cikin kasar.

Masana sun ce rashin tabbas game da zaben shugaban kasa na watan Oktoba a Brazil na iya kara raunana kuɗin kasar saboda masu zuba jari na nuna tsoro.

A gefe guda kuma, wasu kuɗaden kasashe ba sa faɗuwa ko tashi.

Kudin China ya ci gaba da kasancewa a yadda yake saboda gwamnati na sa ido sosai kan shigar da fitar kuɗade tare da kula da darajar yuan.

Haka kuma kuɗin Russia, wato rouble, ya kara karfi saboda kuɗaɗen shiga daga makamashi da kuma tsauraran dokokin gwamnati kan zirga-zirgar kuɗade, ciki har da tilasta masu fitar da kaya mayar da kuɗaɗen waje zuwa rouble.

Me ya ke faruwa da ƙasashen masu arziƙi?

A farkon rikicin, darajar kuɗaɗen ƙasashe masu arziƙi sun kara karfi yayin da masu zuba jari suka nemi mafaka.

Dalar Amurka da kudin Switzerland sun yi karfi kafin daga baya suka dawo daidai kamar yadda suke kafin yaƙin.

Haka kuma darajar kudin Norway ya amfana da tashin farashin danyen mai.

Sai dai kuɗin Japan, wato yen, ya karye saboda ƙasar na dogaro sosai da makamashin da take shigowa da shi daga waje.

Darajar kuɗaɗen Canada da Australia ma sun samu karfi saboda tashin farashin kayayyakin da kasashensu ke fitarwa kamar mai, gas da karafa.

A nahiyar Turai kuwa, euro da fam na Birtaniya sun fuskanci faɗuwa da tashin darajar kuɗaɗen saboda tsadar makamashi da hauhawar farashi da kuma raguwar ci gaban tattalin arziki.

Me zai faru a gaba?

Masana tattalin arziki sun ce duk da cewa hare-haren farko kan Iran sun sa masu zuba jari komawa amfani da dogaro da dalar Amurka, daga baya dalar ta fara karyewa abin da zai iya amfanar ƙasashe masu tasowa.

Sun bayyana cewa idan dalar Amurka ta karye, hakan na bai wa ƙasashe masu tasowa damar rage kudin ruwa da rage tsoron masu zuba jari, tare da sauƙaƙa matsin tattalin arziki.

Haka kuma yawancin bashin ƙasashen masu tasowa ana karbarsa ne da dala, sannan kayayyaki kamar mai ana sayar da su da dala, saboda haka karyewar dala na iya taimaka musu.

Sai dai asusun bayar da lamuni IMF ya gargadi cewa rikicin Iran na iya jefa tattalin arzikin duniya cikin matsala mai cike da hauhawar farashi da raunin ci gaba.

Asusun ya ce idan farashin mai ya ci gaba da tsada, ci gaban tattalin arzikin duniya na iya sauka zuwa kashi 2.5, yayin da hauhawar farashi zai kai kashi 5.4%.