Monthly Outlook

The coming week will be changeable but high pressure should build to give a couple of drier days towards the weekend.

The second half of the month could have a drier period except perhaps in Scotland, with high pressure developing at times.

Early November may become wetter. Temperatures should pan out near to above average overall but occasional calm and clear nights could be chilly.

Unsettled then potentially drier later

Saturday will stay windy, especially across the north of the UK. There will be gales in exposed parts of Scotland, which will also be subject to frequent and sometimes heavy showers, especially in the north and west. Scattered showers will affect other areas but with sunshine in between, and southern England should be largely dry.

Sunday will be drier in most areas as a high pressure ridge moves across but a front will start to push rain into south-west England and Wales in the afternoon. This will slowly spread across the rest of the UK overnight but weaken, leaving Monday mostly cloudy with patchy rain and drizzle. Temperatures will be close to the October average.

Another couple of frontal systems will bring further bands of rain from the Atlantic between Tuesday and Thursday but the wettest and windiest weather will still be over northern parts of the UK, especially Scotland and Northern Ireland, where gales are possible later Tuesday.

Elsewhere, Wednesday and Thursday will be warmer, and largely dry across southern and eastern England before a rain band clears southwards on Friday. Behind that a developing high pressure area should bring 36 hours or so of drier weather before further rain-bearing fronts possibly arrive later in the weekend. Temperatures will moderate, with chilly and foggy conditions possible on Friday night and Saturday morning.

Drier than normal in many areas

High pressure should build near or across the UK at times in the second half of October, with low pressure circulations and frontal systems pushed farther north than normal for the time of year. That should mean drier-than-normal conditions in many areas, especially across the south of the UK, but occasional frontal systems may come around the northern flank of this anticipated high pressure.

These will bring more rain and occasional stronger winds to northern areas, especially Scotland, but a period of rain cannot be ruled out anywhere. However, fronts will most probably weaken as they try to progress southwards. Temperatures should be near to above normal but calmer nights could be rather chilly with fog patches possible.

A risk to the forecast is that high pressure will be weaker or that it could regress into the Atlantic, which might allow wetter conditions more widely.

Most probably drier than normal for many

High pressure should stay nearby during late October, fending off a lot of Atlantic activity, so much of the UK is expected to stay drier than normal. That does not preclude occasional rain in places, depending on where exactly this high pressure aligns. It is possible that north-western parts of the UK will be wetter than southern and eastern regions, and if high pressure is weaker or farther west (about a 20% probability) then more widespread rain would be possible.

Temperatures are more likely to be close to or a little above normal than below, but with further potentially chilly and foggy nights when conditions are calm enough. The wetter risk would also be cooler but there is no sign yet of any set-up that might lead to a risk of an early sustained cold outbreak.

During early November there is a possibility that high pressure could settle farther east, which might allow Atlantic weather systems closer to the UK, with a wetter outcome. Temperatures would still most likely be near to a little above average.

In Tuesday's update high pressure developments should still be apparent, but we will see if there are any clearer indications of its likely position and longevity.