Jack Fenwick
Political correspondent

We’ve just had another big dollop of expectation management from the Greens.

A party source says they believe they’ve tripled their vote share compared to the general election in 2024.

But back then the Greens only got 10% and Labour got close to 50%, so a tripling of the vote share would still leave them way behind where they’d likely have to be to pick up this seat.

This feels like the closest we’ve had yet to the Greens conceding.

The source stresses this has been a safe Labour seat for over four decades and says they believe they are ahead in “some wards”.

How control of London’s councils changed in Maypublished at 01:25 BST

01:25 BST

By Daniel Wainwright

Labour previously had a majority on 21 of 32 London borough councils, but that fell to just nine following May’s local elections.

Camden, the council which contains Holborn and St Pancras, stayed Labour but the party lost 17 seats, leaving them with 30 out of 55 councillors.

The Greens won for the first time both the mayoral and council races in Hackney and Lewisham and took control in Waltham Forest.

The Conservatives retained all of the London councils they already controlled and also gained Westminster from Labour.

Reform UK took control of Havering, the Liberal Democrats kept control of three London councils and Tower Hamlets came under the control of local party Aspire.

Tara Mewawalla
Reporting from the Holborn and St Pancras by-election

An announcement has just declared that all ballot papers have now been verified here at Camden Council's main office.

The turnout for this by-election is 38.76% which equates to 27,309 ballot papers verified.

That's lower than the turnout for this constituency at the 2024 General Election which was 54.1%.

The Makerfield by-election - won by Andy Burnham - saw 58.7% turnout and the Gorton and Denton by-election - when the Green Party's Hannah Spencer came out on top - saw 47.5%.

Adjudication has also started for some counting teams - when counters go over and check the ballot papers they are not sure about.

Image source, PA Media

Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali is standing as Labour's candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.

Abdi-Wali, 42, who came to the UK from Somalia as a child refugee with her family in the 1990s, grew up in Camden, where she became a councillor in 2022.

She was elected as leader of the local authority in May, and has been chosen by Labour members to contest the north London seat vacated by Keir Starmer.

The candidate said she was "delighted that local members have put their trust in me to be Labour's candidate in the area I've grown up in".

She has also worked as a volunteer and trustee for local charities in the borough, as well as the governor of two schools, according to Labour.

Image source, EPA/Shutterstock

Green Party leader Zack Polanski was selected as the party's candidate in the by-election by members of the Camden Green Party.

He won the selection ahead of local councillor Hamza Chowdhury.

Polanski, 43, who grew up in Salford, said he made Camden "my home" when he first moved to London 20 years ago, adding he has "lived and worked across Holborn and St Pancras for many of the years since".

The candidate, who is a London Assembly member, has had an unconventional path to politics, previously working as an actor, hypnotherapist and mental health counsellor.

He first joined the Liberal Democrats in 2015, a party he now criticises as being insufficiently left-wing, before joining the Green Party in 2017.

He previously worked as the Greens local party chairman before getting elected to City Hall in 2021 and becoming the party's deputy leader in 2022. He was elected as party leader in September last year.

This by-election is a test for Burnham against the Greenspublished at 00:49 BST 9 October

00:49 BST 9 October

Jack Fenwick
Political correspondent, reporting from the Holborn and St Pancras by-election

When Andy Burnham became prime minister, he did so by returning to Westminster in a by-election of his own.

At the time, that was seen as a fight against Reform to Labour's right as a test of whether he could beat the party.

This by-election is a test of whether the Labour Party under Andy Burnham's leadership can beat the Green Party on its left.

We know that when Labour had been down in the polls a few months ago, when Keir Starmer was the prime minster, the Greens had been taking votes off them on the left.

When Zack Polanski become the Green Party leader just over a year ago, they had a real bounce in the polls.

Well, that poll rating has dipped in recent months - and that's a trend that has continued since Andy Burnham has come into power.

Tara Mewawalla
Reporting from the Holborn and St Pancras by-election

Image source, PA Media

We’re almost an hour into the count tonight and energy is still high.

There are huddles of party members on each counting floor, and I can see brightly-coloured charts on computer screens where members are making predictions of how well their candidates have done.

All ballot boxes - about 60 - are back from the polling stations now. Only two are yet to be brought to the counting teams and I’m told we are expecting voter turnout to be announced soon.

So far, I've spotted Briony Kapoor from the Rejoin EU Party and Tyler Johnson from Restore Britain here at the count.

I’m now two coffees in and have just been told the oat milk machine is broken - that may ruffle some feathers.

Image source, BBC/Reuters

During the 43 years since the Holborn and St Pancras seat was created, it has been represented by just two MPs.

Frank Dobson won the seat for Labour in 1983 and continued to hold it in every successive general election until he stood down in 2015.

He was succeeded by Keir Starmer, who continued Dobson's streak with commanding wins for Labour in 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2024.

Whover wins today's by-election will become the third MP to represent this inner London seat.

A Green Party source has responded to earlier comments from Caroline Lucas on the party's motion at its conference over the weekend.

They say: “There are ups and downs in politics and when people are passionate they disagree in the heat of a campaign."

The source adds: "We do things differently, unlike Labour who use anonymous sources and resort to factionalism."

For context: A motion passed by members of the Green Party at its conference last weekend defined Zionism as an ideology supporting "an ethnonationalist Jewish state" and backed a "single democratic Palestinian state in all of historic Palestine", which includes modern-day Israel.

James Murray has praised Labour's candidate for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, calling her "fantastic".

The financial secretary to the Treasury tells Newsnight that Sagal Abdi-Wali's messaging on topics such as rough sleeping and young people may appeal to voters who would have previously voted Green.

Regarding questions around the Labour Party delaying tough decisions to not put off voters, Murray says the party is "serious about government" and "serious about delivering".

Tara Mewawalla
Reporting from the Holborn and St Pancras by-election

We've just heard that one of the counting teams has finished verifying ballot papers.

There are 12 of these teams, spread over two floors in the Camden Council main office.

That team will now move on to counting, while the other teams will continue verification and then move on to counting ballot papers.

The vote counting is now under way.

Ewan Somerville
Political reporter

Image source, Reuters

Andy Burnham has called on Green leader Zack Polanski to reverse a motion passed by members of his party declaring Zionism a form of racism.

The prime minister said the motion, approved on Sunday at the party's conference in Brighton, was "completely wrong" and showed "terrible judgement".

The motion defined Zionism as an ideology supporting "an ethnonationalist Jewish state" and backed a "single democratic Palestinian state in all of historic Palestine", which includes modern-day Israel.

In the wake of the vote, Polanski has said he would not accept anyone being excluded from the Green Party "because of the religious or communal body they are part of".

Caroline Lucas says the Green Party was always going to have "a major hill to climb" in today's by-election, given its history as a Labour stronghold, but still feels the party will do well.

The former Green leader says she thinks it was a "mistake" that Zack Polanski did not vote in the Green Party motion on Zionism over the weekend, but declined to answer whether he should stand down as party leader.

Lucas opposed the new policy, which declared Zionism as a form of racism.

She tells Newsnight: "I would have hoped he would have been a very strong critic of this motion. The motion was flawed from top to bottom - in my view it is dangerous, it is divisive."

Lucas adds: "I know an awful lot of people are hurting out there now, particularly in the Jewish community, and I am very sorry."

Tara Mewawalla
Reporting from the Holborn and St Pancras by-election

Image source, PA Media

The counters are now hard at work verifying that the number of votes cast matches the number of ballot papers that they have received, and checking for spoilt ballots.

Party members are standing over them eagerly writing on clipboards.

Some of them are reading polling cards to get an idea of how their party is doing in each polling district, and to potentially inform their campaigning going forwards.

They will also use their tallies to gauge how their candidate is doing throughout the night, and feed those predictions through to journalists.

Susan Hulme
Parliamentary correspondent

Image source, EPA/Shutterstock

Lucy Powell has praised her party's candidate, Sagal Abdi-Wali, and party campaigners, who she says "have been telling our Labour story of hope".

The deputy leader of the Labour Party says: “Sagal came to Britain as a child refugee, fleeing a war-torn country. Educated in great Labour Camden schools, she’s been giving back to her local community ever since."

She continues: “If the voters of Holborn and St Pancras put their trust in Labour, I know that Sagal will work hard every day to make life better for each and every person across the constituency.”

Tara Mewawalla
Reporting from the Holborn and St Pancras by-election

The first couple of ballot boxes have arrived.

They were swiftly escorted through the office doors and taken to two tables where counters are verifying pollster numbers.

We'll bring you more on this shortly.

Susan Hulme
Parliamentary correspondent

The Green Party has put out a statement following the closure of polls in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.

A party spokesperson says: "Zack would like to thank the thousands of volunteers who helped him in this campaign."

They say the party leader, who is also the Green's candidate in the by-election, would "like to pay tribute to Sagal, for a respectful campaign and for rising above the appalling racism she has had to endure. Despite our political differences, we stand in solidarity with you".

The statement continues: "Whatever the result later, we've run a positive campaign full of energy in what is one of Labour's safest seats. To be the main challenger, shows how far the Greens have come.

"Whether we win or lose, this evening, keeping the pressure on the Labour government to deliver on these priorities will be our focus."

Image source, PA Media

When Keir Starmer announced his resignation as prime minister earlier in June, he said he would stay on as an MP until the next UK general election, which is not due until 2029.

But in a surprise statement - hours before his successor Andy Burnham made his debut in the House of Commons - Starmer said he would leave his post as an MP, triggering a by-election in Holborn and St Pancras.

Starmer said he was resigning to work on issues such as international affairs and violence against women and girls.

He told the Camden New Journal, external it had been a "huge honour and privilege" to represent the London constituency for 11 years, ending weeks of speculation about whether he would remain an MP.

It now leaves his parliamentary seat in Holborn and St Pancras empty, and 15 candidates are waiting at the ballot box hoping to replace him.

Tara Mewawalla
Reporting from the Holborn and St Pancras by-election

More and more people are arriving at the count today after polls closed a short time ago.

We are expecting ballot boxes to start arriving in the next hour.

The counting here at Camden Council’s main office is spread over three floors - 144 counting staff are positioned on long tables on the upper two floors, with media below.

There has been an energetic buzz about the building as counters prepare for the night ahead, and they’ve just had an announcement to begin verification of postal ballot papers.

The big job tonight has begun.

I’ve seen party members milling around where the counting is taking place - red, blue and yellow rosettes indicate their affiliation to Labour, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrat parties.

Briony Kapoor, the candidate from the Rejoin EU Party, has also just arrived.

More journalists have also trickled in, and at least a couple Metropolitan Police officers.

Voters could be seen leaving polling stations across Holborn and St Pancras today after casting their ballots in today's by-election.

Image source, Reuters

Image source, Reuters

Image source, Reuters

Image source, Reuters