Chris Mason
Political editor

Downing Street staff have just brought speakers out into the street. The preparations for a prime ministerial statement are beginning.

Nick Eardley
Political correspondent

We are still waiting for confirmation (or otherwise) of whether the prime minister will resign today. That’s the overwhelming expectation in Westminster.

The No 10 team remains very quiet this morning.

It’s worth remembering though; if Keir Starmer doesn’t confirm his departure soon, there are plenty of Labour MPs prepared to try and force it.

Image source, House of Commons

Labour MP and Andy Burnham supporter, Anna Dixon, says she wants Starmer to step down without a leadership contest being triggered.

"I think it's clear now that the PM recognises it's time to go, I think he's seen the writing on the wall," she tells Radio 4's Today programme.

She says she hopes Starmer will set out timetable for transition "whether that's in weeks or months", in order to "preserve stability for the country".

Dixon says its important for the country to have a "smooth handover", but says it does not need to see leadership hopefuls "pull each other apart" in debates.

Asked if that means she wants to see Burnham given the job without a contest, Dixon says Burnham has "already shown he's a very successful politician for some 25 years".

"He's sat round the cabinet table previously... he's run a major city as mayor for nine years, so I think he has been tested."

If Keir Starmer announces his resignation today, his biographer suggests the PM could quit politics altogether.

Journalist Tom Baldwin tells the BBC that no-one knows what decision Keir Starmer will make today, but emphasises he is a "very private, very intensely emotional man making one of the very biggest decisions of his life".

Baldwin suggests Starmer feels "deeply frustrated" by the fact Labour's achievements might be clouded by the challenge to his leadership, adding: "I think he's hurt by some of the behaviour of people around him, some of the people he trusted, who he gave jobs to."

"If Keir Starmer does decide to leave - and I don't know what he's going to do - I don't think he's going to stick around in politics for long," he says.

"For him it's always been something he needs to endure rather than do out of love."

Image source, EPA

Andy Burnham is due in Westminster to be sworn in as Makerfield’s new MP later today, following his victory in last week's by-election.

Douglas Lumsden, the new Conservative MP for Aberdeen South, and Lara Bird, who was elected as the SNP’s new MP for Arbroath and Broughty Ferry - both of whom were also elected in separate by-elections last week - are also expected at the House of Commons .

Henry Zeffman
Chief political correspondent, reporting from Downing Street

No disrespect to Jacqui Smith, who's a very distinguished, experienced figure, but if Keir Starmer were fighting on, I would expect a member of the cabinet to be out there batting for him this morning.

They're not and I think that does tell a bit of a story.

Skills minister Baroness Jacqui Smith says Keir Starmer has spent the weekend "governing" as she's asked whether she expects him to resign today.

"This is a period of time when there is a challenge to the prime minister," Smith accepts.

"He is reflecting on that, he's thinking about how to respond to it."

Pressed further on whether Starmer might step down to allow Andy Burnham to become prime minister without a leadership contest, Smith says he should be afforded the "time and space" to consider the country's best interests and carry on the "process of government".

Former health minister Zubir Ahmed says he believes Prime Minister Keir Starmer setting out a timetable for him to step down is "the right thing to do".

Last month, Ahmed - an ally of Wes Streeting - resigned his ministerial role after having "lost confidence" in Starmer as PM.

"I think what's been happening over the weekend... is that he has been reflecting - cabinet colleagues have been telling him that the current situation is unsustainable," Ahmed tells Radio 4's Today programme.

"It sounds like we're slowly getting to a point where the PM is going to set out a timetable to allow for an orderly transition to new leadership," he says.

"I think that's the right thing to do."

Image source, PA Media

There is no need for the government to call a general election if Starmer is ousted as prime minister, says Conservative shadow Northern Ireland secretary Alex Burghart.

Asked if the Conservatives will call for such a general election, Burhghart tells Radio 4's Today programme: "No, look, constitutionally there doesn't have to be a general election. You can change prime minister."

Burhghart, who earlier spoke to BBC Breakfast, adds that "what matters is that the prime minister has the support of MPs in Parliament".

However, he adds that if a general election is called, his party is "ready for it".

Henry Zeffman
Chief political correspondent

If Andy Burnham gains the keys to No 10, here are some of the MPs and advisers who could be given key roles:

Louise Haigh: The former transport secretary was the first of Keir Starmer's cabinet ministers to quit, after it emerged in November 2024 that she had a fraud conviction prior to entering parliament. On the backbenches she emerged as a crucial power broker on Labour's "soft left" and has been a major figure in Burnham's Makerfield campaign.

Image source, EPA

Anneliese Midgley: Midgley has been Knowsley MP since 2024. She previously worked for Starmer's office in opposition following stints at the TUC, Unite and in former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn's team. She is seen as a plausible candidate for chief whip or even to be the political secretary in Downing Street.

Miatta Fahnbulleh: She resigned as a junior minister for communities in the aftermath of the May elections. Since then she has been working on policy ideas for a potential Burnham government.

Image source, Reuters

Josh Simons: He's the man who gave up his seat for Burnham. Simons is said to have been helping Team Burnham on policy, though he has a different ideological background to Fahnbulleh, and is seen as a likely candidate for a role in a Burnham Downing Street.

• Read more on the key figures in Andy Burnham's inner circle in my story

Image source, PA Media

Keir Starmer stepping down would not be a shock following poor polling since May's local elections, says Sophie Stowers, from the research and polling organisation More in Common.

Stowers tells Radio 4's Today Programme that More in Common's polling showed that more than half of people questioned believed Starmer should step down as PM after May's elections.

“So it’s not necessarily a shock if the prime minister does decide to leave,” she says.

She says “most” people in that same poll said they would like to see a general election “earlier rather than later”.

“But they are split on whether that means an election should be held immediately or just at some point ahead of schedule before 2029,” she adds.

Labour MPs have "completely blown it" and "lost the confidence of the country" after waiting for 14 years to get into power, the Conservatives' shadow Northern Ireland secretary says.

Speaking to BBC Breakfast, Alex Burghart says Prime Minister Keir Starmer is a "completely busted flush".

Should Starmer resign, Burghart warns the period of instability that might follow would be "very bad for the United Kingdom", adding "we can’t be a country that changes PM every few years".

Despite welcoming rumours of Starmer's exit, the Tory MP suggests Andy Burnham, the figure mooted to replace him, won't have a much better relationship with the Conservative Party.

Burghart explains his party is prepared to work with anyone "who takes difficult decisions on welfare", but says "everything we've seen about Andy Burnham is that he would like to do the opposite".

All eyes are on Downing Street this morning, with the expectation that Keir Starmer could say something about his future.

Here is a reminder of some of what we heard over the weekend:

On Sunday morning, Business Secretary Peter Kyle told Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg that Keir Starmer is reflecting on the "political realities".

Our political correspondent Nick Eardley says Kyle’s messaging marked a change in tone from the government. He wasn’t repeating the prime minister’s insistence from Friday that he would continue.

Donald Trump also weighed in, asserting that Starmer "will resign" having "failed badly" on immigration and energy in a post on Truth Social. No 10 tells the BBC Starmer has not spoken to Trump this weekend.

Image source, PA Media

Henry Zeffman
Chief political correspondent

If Keir Starmer does resign, one of the most important questions is that of timing - when would the next prime minister take over?

Increasingly, many in Labour anticipate a “coronation”, which means Andy Burnham would be the only candidate.

Some influential figures in Burnham's camp want him to take over around the time of the annual Labour conference in late September, believing this would give him more space to prepare for government and ensure he can hit the ground running if he becomes prime minister.

But other leading supporters of the former Greater Manchester mayor believe that timetable is far too slow, arguing that an interregnum of three months would grind government to a halt as speculation about what exactly Burnham's plans for government could be build into a frenzy.

For now, the most important voice in that is Starmer: he may be so angry at how he’s been treated by Labour MPs that he’d rather go sooner than later, or he may see the appeal of using the next few months to secure specific policies he sees as central to his legacy.

Image source, PA Media

Andy Burnham - the newly-elected Labour MP for Makerfield - could be the next prime minister.

He was the mayor of Greater Manchester for the past nine years, and has had a seat in Parliament before, representing Leigh from 2001 - 2017.

He has twice run to be Labour leader, in 2010 and 2015, and lost both times.

Here the BBC's Ben Wright takes a look at Burnham's life and political career.

Henry Zeffman
Chief political correspondent, reporting from Downing Street

It is important to emphasise that this morning we still do not know that Sir Keir Starmer is going to resign.

But we do know that an imminent resignation is the widespread expectation throughout government. That has been widely reported throughout the media for more than 24 hours now and Downing Street has done little to dampen the speculation.

Should Starmer resign, it would be our sixth prime ministerial resignation since David Cameron announced his departure the morning after the Brexit referendum (which was 10 years ago tomorrow).

That is an extraordinary rate of prime ministerial churn.

There’ll be plenty of discussion to come about the causes of that chaos: chaos which Starmer’s Labour promised to end.

Image source, Reuters

Jon Kay
BBC Breakfast

Anything could happen during BBC Breakfast this morning; we are poised in Downing Street.

The world's media are already here too, at 6 o'clock on a Monday morning.

I've never seen it quite this busy so early.

• You can watch our live coverage in our stream at the top of the page

Henry Zeffman
Chief political correspondent

The prime minister is in Downing Street this morning, having returned from his weekend at Chequers, his country residence in Buckinghamshire.

Image source, PA Media

The pressure on Starmer ramped up considerably after the local elections in May, in which Labour lost almost 1,500 councillors in England and the party lost power in Wales, while recording its worst ever result for the Scottish Parliament.

However, discontent had been rising long before the elections, including over his decision to change direction on three major policies in a month last year.

Starmer's decision to appoint Lord Peter Mandelson as UK ambassador to the US also led to questions about his judgement. Lord Mandelson was sacked after new information came to light about the depth of his relationship with the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

While Starmer had been vowing to fight any leadership challenge, the tone shifted after Burnham beat Reform UK in Makerfield on Thursday and increased Labour's majority, bucking a recent trend of electoral losses.

That led to cabinet ally Peter Kyle saying on Sunday the prime minister was considering "political realities".

All eyes on No 10 - what does the PM say, and when?published at 05:37 BST

05:37 BST

Chris Mason
Political editor

Image source, PA Media

For the third time in four years, we appear on the brink of a prime minister announcing their plan to leave office, not because they have lost a general election but because their own party has concluded they would be better off without them.

Many people within government and in the wider Labour Party expect Sir Keir Starmer to say just this, perhaps as soon as this morning.

His premiership, in the eyes of many on his own side, has been deflating for months.

Burnham's victory last week – and the scale of it – uncorked the bottle of Labour Party dissent that had been constrained by the by-election campaign.

The prime minister spent the weekend mulling his options, knowing he was, frankly, running out of them.

We know of at least four cabinet ministers – the home and foreign secretaries among them – to have told Starmer he should set a timetable for his departure.

Read Chris's analysis here.