Me ya sa al-Qa'ida ta ƙi cewa uffan kan yaƙin Iran?

Kusan za a iya cewa ƙungiyar Al-Qa'ida ta yi gum da bakinta tun bayan ɓarkewar rikici tsakanin Amurka da Isra'ila da kuma Iran.

Ba a saba ganin hakan ba, kasancewar ƙungiyar da kuma masu goya mata baya kan bayyana matsayarsu a mafi yawan lokuta idan aka samu ɓarkewar manyan al'amura a Gabas ta Tsakiya.

Bayani ɗaya ne tal cibiyar Al-Qa'ida ta fitar a ranar 4 ga watan Fabarairu lokacin da Amurka ke ci gaba da jibge sojoji da kayan yaƙi a Gabas ta Tsakiya gabanin kai wa Iran hari.

Ƙungiyar ta yi kira ga Musulmai da su kai hari kan kayan soji na Amurka da Isra'ila, wani abu da ƙungiyoyin masu iƙirarin jihadi da ke adawa da ƙungiyar suka bayyana a matsayin nuna goyon baya ga Iran.

Sai dai gum ɗin da ƙungiyar ta yi ya alamta tamkar ta yi ne a bisa dalili.

A halin yanzu ƙungiyar Al-Qa'ida na cikin wani mawuyacin hali: an bayyana cewa jagoranta Saif al-Adl da kuma da dama daga cikin muƙarrabansa na zaune ne a Iran.

Da dama daga cikin manyan jagororin ƙungiyar da iyalansu sun yi gudun hijira zuwa Iran daga ƙasashen Afghanistan da Pakistan bayan harin 11 ga watan Satumban 2001.

Jerin sunayen mutanen da Amurka ke nema ruwa a jallo, wanda hukumar bincike ta Amurka FBI ta wallafa ya nuna cewa Saif al-Adl na zama ne a ƙasar Iran.

A ɓangare ɗaya kuma Al-Qa'ida ba za ta so ta tunzura Iran ba ta hanyar bin jerin ƙungiyoyin masu tsattsauran ra'ayi na Sunni ba, wadanda ke jan kunne game da goyon bayan gwamnatin Iran ta Shi'a, kasancewar ƙungiyoyin masu iƙirarin jihadi da dama kusan duk sun amince cewa kada su goyi bayan wani ɓangare a yaƙin, musamman don ganin ba su nuna tausaya wa Iran ba.

Haka nan ta wani ɓangaren, yana iya yiwuwa ƙungiyar ta ƙi ci gaba da fitar da bayanai irin wanda ta fitar a ranar 4 ga watan Fabarairu ne domin za a iya fassara irin wannan saƙon a matsayin nuna goyon baya ga Iran a kaikaice.

Akwai ƙungiyoyin masu iƙirarin jihadi da dama da ke kallon gwanatin Shi'a ta Iran a matsayin maƙiyiya kuma barazana ga mabiya sunni.

Ko a lokacin yaƙin kwana 12 da aka yi gwabza tsakanin Iran da Amurka da Isra'ila a shekarar 2025, ƙungiyar Al-Qa'ida ta ɗauki irin wannan mataki na yin gum da bakinta.

Amma akasin matakin matakin Al-Qa'ida, abokiyar hamayyarta ƙungiyar Islamic State (ISIS) ta riƙa surutu kan rikicin, inda take yi wa dukkanin ɓangarorin biyu shaguɓe.

ISIS ta fassara bayanin da Al-Qa'ida ta fitar a ranar 4 ga watan Fabarairu a matsayin "hujjar" cewa ta zama ƙungiyar mai goyon bayan Iran.

Shiru game da shugabancin al-Qa’ida

Shirun da Al-Qa’ida ta yi kan yakin Iran na da alaka ta kut da kut da shirun da kungiyar ta yi kan matsayin jagororinta.

A zahiri musamman a cikin sanarwa da takan fitar Al-Qa’ida ba ta fito ta bayyana wane ne ainahin jagoranta ba tun daga watan Yulin 2022 bayan da Amurka ta sanar cewa ra kashe shugaban kungiyar Ayman al-Zawahiri a birnin Kabul.

A wancan lokaci rahotannin farko-farko da suka fito sun nuna cewa mataimakin shugaban kungiyar Said al-Adl al-Masri shi ne ya karbi ragamar shugabancin kungiyar.

Har yanzu kungiyar ba ta tabbatar ko karyata rahotannin ba, duk kuwa da cewa akasarin kungiyoyin masu tsattsauran ra’ayi sun yi amanna da batun kisan Zawahiri da kuma karbar ragamar jagoranci da Saif al-Adl ya yi.

Mutane da dama da ke da kusanci da Al-Qa’ida sun tabbatar da rahotannin da ke cewa har yanzu akwai wasu manyan jagororin kungiyar da ke zama a Iran.

Tun a cikin shekara ta 2022, kungiyar ISIS ta fito fili ta zargi Al-Qa’ida da zama mai biyayya ga Iran, inda ta kafa hujja da zaman Saif al-Adl a cikin kasar.

A bangare daya kuma masu goyon bayan al-Qa’ida na bayar da uzuri ta hanyar kafa hujja da mawuyacin halin da take ciki, inda suke cewa Saif al-Adl na fuskntar daurin talala ne ko kuma an ki barin shi ne ya fice daga Iran.

A saboda haka ne Iran ke ta kokarin yi taka-tsantsan, tsakanin sakonnin da take aika wa mabiyanta masu adawa da Iran, da kuma a bangare daya guje wa abin da zai bata wa Iran din rai.

Waau daga cikin manyan al-Qa’ida ma za su iya kafa hujja da cewa alakar kumgiyar da Iran wata dabara ce kawai ta wani dan lokaci saboda wasu dalilai, kamar yadda kungiyar Hamas ta Falasdinwa ta yi, wadda asalinta ta mabiya akidar sunni ce mai tushe daga kungiyar Muslim brotherhood.

Shirun da ya haifar da cece-ku-ce

Duk da cewa reshen Al-Qa’ida na Yemen, wato Al-Qa’ida a yankin Larabawa, wanda shi ne tamkar babban kakakinta saboda rashin shugabanci na bai-daya bai ce komai ba game da yakin.

Reshen Al-Qa’ida daya tilo da ya fitar da sanarwa shi ne na yankin Indiya. Reshen ya wallafa matsayarsa ne a shafukan mujallar “Nawa‘i Ghazwat Hind” a ranar 8 ga watan Maris, inda bayananta suka nuna cewa goyon bayanta ya fi karkata ga Iran.

A yadda aka saba Al-Qa’ida kan nuna matsayarta a kan duk wani muhimmin abu da ya faru a yankin Musulmai. Misali shi ne yadda kungiyar ta rika fadin albarkacin bakinta kan rikin Gaza, fiye da kungiyar ISIS.

Sai dai an rika fassara bayanan Al-Qa’ida game da yakin Gaza a matsayin goyon baya ga Hamas, daga baya kuma ga bangaren kungiyoyin da ke nuna turjiya bisa jagorancin Iran.

Sakonnin ta’aziyyar kisan shugabannin Hamas sun sanya kungiyoyin masu tsattsauran ra’ayi - musamman ISIS - zargin cewa akwai tasirin Iran a wasu kalaman kungiyar ta al-Qa’ida.

Al-Qa’ida na sane da irin yadda ake fassara kalamanta, wanda hakan ya sa ta rika kauce ya yabon Hamas kai tsaye, inda ta fi mayar da hankali kan tsokaci game da ayyukan kungiyoyi kamar “Palestinian Mukahideen” ko kuma Qassan Brigades, wato bangaren soji na Hamas, wanda wasu kungiyoyin masu ikirarin jihadi ke yi wa kallo ba su karkata sosai ga Iran ba idan aka kwatanta da bangaren shugabancin siyasa na Hamas.

Al-Qa’ida da kungiyoyi masu alaka da ita sun yi gum da bakinsu a yakin kwana 12 da aka yi tsakanin Iran da Amurka da Isra’ila a shekarar 2025. To amma shirun da ta yi a wannan karo ya fi jan hankali saboda girmar lamarin da yadda ya shafi duniyar Musulmi.

Masu tsattsauran ra’ayi na ganin cewa bai kamata kungiyar ta nuna goyon bayanta ga Iran ba, inda suke bayyana Iran a matsayin kasar da ke cin zaracin mabiya akidar sunni.

Sanarwar da ta bar baya da kura

Al-Qaeda's February 4 statement, coinciding with the increased US military presence in the region, called on Muslims to attack US and Israeli military targets, including their ships, throughout the region. The call was apparently also aimed at Arab public opinion and governments, warning that if they did not take decisive action against US presence and influence in the region, they could suffer a fate similar to that of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, whom the US removed from power in January.

The reaction of al-Qaeda supporters in cyberspace was limited and lackluster.

That such a rare and important statement from al-Qaeda's highest authority—the organization's first message in a year—was met with little response and little discussion among hardline Islamists could be a sign of some hesitation or confusion. Perhaps some saw the timing as inappropriate given the US-Iran standoff, when any action by Sunnis at that time could be seen as serving Tehran's interests.

Supporters of ISIS, a long-time rival of al-Qaeda, immediately interpreted the message as indirect support for Iran, a country that was the focus of US military equipment. They accused al-Qaeda of effectively becoming part of Tehran's "axis of resistance."

This perception was reinforced on February 26, just two days before the start of the war with Iran, when ISIS published an article mocking al-Qaeda's February 4 statement, calling it "evidence" of the group's support for Iran. ISIS claimed that al-Qaeda's positions and calls were dictated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and that, due to "the presence of Saif al-Adl in Iran," the group was effectively in the "Shiite orbit of Tehran."