Putin yoba yarananiwe mu ntambara yiwe muri muri Ukraine, Uburusiya bwipfuza iki?

Igihe Vladimir Putin yagomorera ingabo 200.000 kuri Ukraine ku wa 24 Ruhuhuma (2) 2022, yari azi ko mu misi mikeya gusa yari kuba yashwaye umugwa mukuru Kyiv, agasenyura reta.

Inyuma yo kurushwa vy'akamaramaza mu bice bitari bike bikaba ngombwa ko ingabo ziwe zisubira inyuma, biragaragara ko yananiwe gushika ku ntumbero nyamukuru yari yaje afise, ariko si ukuvuga ko Uburusiya bwatsinzwe muri ino ntambara.

Ico Putin yarondera ubwa mbere cari iki?

Gushika ubu, umukuru w’igihugu c’Uburusiya avuga ko iki gitero ca mbere gikomeye ku mugabane wa Bulaya kuva intambara ya kabiri y’isi yose irangiye ari “igikorwa kidasanzwe ca gisirikare”.

Ku bwiwe, iyi ntambara imaze guhitana abanyagihugu batari bake, abagera ku miriyoni 13 nabo bagahunga igihugu, abandi nabo bagahungira hagati mu gihugu, ntabwo ari intambara yeruye.

Intumbero yatanze ku wa 24 Ruhuhuma 2022 yari iyo “gusambura igisirikare no gukura ubutegetsi bw’iki-Nazi” muri Ukraine, ntiyari iyo kwigarurira ku nguvu iki gihugu, hari haciye imisi mikeya yemeje ukwikukira kw’uturere tw’ubuseruko bwa Ukraine twari mu minwe y’inyeshamba zishigikiwe n’Uburusiya kuva mu 2014.

Yiyemeje gukingira abanyagihugu bari bamaze imyaka umunani bakorerwa ihonyabwoko n’itotezwa n’abategetsi ba Ukraine – nk’uko Uburusiya bukunze kubiririmba ariko ata vyemezo butanga. Yavuga ko yashaka kubuza OTAN/NATO guhonyoza ikirenge muri Ukraine, mu nyuma yongerako n’iyindi ntumbero, ko ashaka gukora ibishoboka vyose kugira ngo Ukraine ntihagire uruhande na rumwe yegamira.

Perezida Putin ntiyigera abivugira hejuru, ariko intumbero nyamukuru yari iyo gusenyura reta y’umukuru w’igihugu ca Ukraine yatowe n’abanyagihugu.

Volodymyr Zelensky yavuze ati: "Umwansi yavuze ko ndi uwa mbere ndonderwa; umuryango wanje uza ubwa kabiri”.

Ingabo z’Uburusiya zagerageje incuro zibiri zose gutera ikirimba c’umukuru w’igihugu, nk’uko bivugwa n’umuhanuzi wiwe.

Ivyavugwa n’Uburusiya ko aba-Nazi ba Ukraine bariko barakora ihonyabwoko nta nsiguro vyagize, ariko itororokanirizo ry’amakuru rya reta y’Uburusiya Ria Novosti ryasigura ko "gusenyura ubutegetsi bw’iki-Nazi hamwe no gufuta Ukraine ari ngombwa” – ivyumvikana ko kwari ugukuraho igihugu ca Ukraine ca none.

Hari haciye imyaka itari mike umukuru w’igihugu c’Uburusiya avuga ko Ukraine idakwiye kubaho nk’igihugu, aho mw’ijambo rirerire ryo mu 2021 yanditse ko “Abarusiya n’abanya-Ukraine ari abenegihugu bamwe” kuva mu kinjana c’icenda.

None Putin yahinduye gute intumbero ziwe

Haciye ukwezi intambara itanguye intumbero ziwe nazo zigahinduka inyuma y’aho yomokeye akava mu micungararo ya Kyiv na Chernihiv, intumbero nyamukuru yaciye iba iyo “kubohoza Donbas” – aha akaba yashaka kuvuga intara zibiri zirimwo amahinguriro ya Ukraine mu buseruko, ari zo Luhansk na Donetsk.

Ingabo zabwo zirukanywe muri Kharkiv mu buraruko bushira ubuseruko hamwe na Kherson mu bumanuko, intumbero z’Uburusiya ntizahindutse, ariko nta ntambwe nini iboneka bwateye kugira ngo buzishikeko.

Uku gutsindwa ku rugamba muri utu turere kwatumye iyi ndongozi y’Uburusiya yihutira gutangaza ko intara zine za Ukraine zegukiye Uburusiya, hari mu kw’icenda, ariko mu bisanzwe ata n’imwe muri zo agenzura ijana kw'ijana: yaba Luhansk canke Donetsk mu buseruko, canke Kherson canke Zaporizhzhia mu bumanuko.

Perezida Putin vyabaye ngombwa ko, ku ncuro ya mbere kuva ku ntambara ya kabiri y’isi yose, atera akamo ko kwinjiza izindi ngabo mu buryo bwihutirwa, n’aho atarondeye nyinshi kuko yahamagaje ingabo z’integabizoza zababa 300.000.

Ubu hari intambara yo kwonona ku rwasiro rungana na 850km, kandi si ukuvuga ko Uburusiya buvyifatamwo neza cane. Icavugwa ko cari igikorwa ca gisirikare kidasanzwe cari gufata akanya urume rumara cavuyemwo intambara y’urudaca abategetsi b’ibihugu vy’Uburengero biyemeje ko Ukraine itegerezwa kuyitsinda. Iciyumviro c’uko Ukraine yohava iba igihugu ataho cegamiye caramaze kuvaho kera.

Mu kw’icumi na kabiri, Perezida Putin yaragabishije ko intambara "ishobora kuba ndende", ariko mu nyuma yongerako y’uko intumbero y’Uburusiya itari “iyo gutuma haba intambara ya gisirikare”, ariko ko yari iyo kuyihagarika.

None amaze gushika kuki?

Ikintu nyamukuru Perezida Putin ashobora kwishimira ko amaze gushikako ni ukwubaka ikiraro gihuza Uburusiya n’akarere ka Crimea bwigaruriye mu 2014 bidaciye mu mategeko, ubu aka karere kakaba katakigendera gusa ku kiraro cako kiri ku muhora wa Kerch (Détroit de Kertch/Kerch Strait).

Avuga ko kwigarurira aka karere, karimwo ibisagara vya Mariupol na Melitopol, ari "intambwe ikomeye ku Burusiya". Ikiyaga ca Azov, hagati mu muhora wa Kerch, "ubu cabaye icegukira Uburusiya", nk’uko yabitangaje, akavuga ko mbere n’umu-Tsar (umwami) w’Uburusiya yari akomeye cane Pierre le Grand/ Peter the Great atashoboye gushika ku kintu nk’iki.

None yoba yarananiwe

Usivye kwifatira umuhora w’ubutaka ugana muri Crimea, intambara y’Uburusiya ifatwa ko itagira ishingiro kandi idasiguritse yabaye akaga kuri bwo ubwabwo hamwe no ku gihugu catewe. Gushika ubu, nta kintu kinini cane bwovuga ko bwashitseko uretse gushira ahabona ico ababurwanya bafata ko ari ubugome n’ubushobozi buke bw’ingabo z’Uburusiya.

Mu gihe ibisagara bimwe bimwe nka Mariupol vyagizwe umunyota, hari amakuru yahavuye aja ahabona avuga ivyaha vyo mu ntambara vyakozwe n’ingabo zabwo ku basivire muri Bucha, hafi ya Kyiv, ivyatumye icegeranyo c’umurwi wigenga cagiriza Uburusiya gukokeza ihonyabwoko.

Ariko ugutsindwa ku ruhande rwa gisirikare mu duce tumwe tumwe kwatumye biboneka ko Uburusiya bufise ingorane:

Amajambo y’Uburusiya yo kugabisha Uburengero ku birwanisho buha Ukraine ntaco yavuze, na rirya Uburengero bwiyemeje gufasha Ukraine “mu gihe cose bizoba nkenerwa”.

Ukraine yarongererejwe inguvu za gisirikare igihe buhawe vya muzinga vyo mu bwoko bwa Himars hamwe n’ama-chars yo mu bwoko bwa Leopard 2 yemerewe n’Ubudagi.

Ariko iyi ntambara ntabwo irarangira. Intambara yo kwigarurira Donbas irabandanya. Uburusiya buherurste kwigarurira igisagara ca Soledar muri uno mwaka, mbere bukaba bwizeye ko buzoruhira gufata igisagara ca Bakhmut, inzira yo gusatira ibisagara bikuru bikuru amaja mu burengero, kandi bukongera bukisubiza n’ubutaka bwatakaje mu mezi aheze.

Abakurikiranira hafi Putin babona ko ariko ararondera gutsimbataza ubutegetsi bwiwe mu ntara zine yatangaje ko zegukiye Uburusiya, atari muri Donbas honyene, ariko kandi n’amaja mu gisagara gikomeye ca Zaporizhzhia.

Mu gihe yobona bikenewe, Perezida Putin ashobora gutera akandi kamo ko kwinjiza izindi ngabo intambara ikabandanya.

Uburusiya ni igihugu rutura gitunze ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri, akaba yaragabishije ko yiteguye, mu gihe vyoba ngombwa, kubikoresha mu ntumbero yo gukingira Uburusiya no gutsimbatara mu turere rwa Ukraine yigaruriye.

Mu kugabisha yavuze ati: "Tuzokoresha ibirwanisho vy’ubwoko bwose dufise. Aha si ndiko ndajajura”.

Kyiv yemeza kandi ko Uburusiya buriko burarondera gusenyura ubutegetsi bwa Moldavie buhengamiye ku Bulaya, igihugu ingabo z’Uburusiya zisanzwe zifisemwo ibirindiro mu karere ka Transnistria gashaka kwiyonkora, kari ku rubibe na Ukraine.

None Putin yoba amaze guhungabanywa?

Perezida Putin w’imyaka 70 ubu, ntiyigera yiyumvira ivyo gutsindwa, ariko inguvu ziwe hanze y’Uburusiya zaratitutse mbere agira ingendo nke cane hanze y’igihugu ciwe.

Hagati mu gihugu, ubutunzi bw’Uburusiya ku maso buboneka ko bwashoboye kurinda ibihano bitari bike bwagiye bufatirwa n’uburengero, n’aho ifaranga ryabwo ryagize ingorane zikomeye mbere n’amafaranga bwinjiza mu gitoro na gaz akaba yaragabanutse bikomeye.

Gupima urugero rw’ubwizigirwa asigaranye mu gihugu si ikintu coroshe.

Mu gihugu ni ryogora duhure, mu gihe uwuhirahiriye agatangaza “amakuru y’ibinyoma” ku gisirikare c’Uburusiya aca apfungwa.

Abatavuga rumwe n’ubutegetsi bw’Uburusiya bamwe barahunze, abandi nabo, harimwo na wa munyaporitike Alexei Navalny, barapfunzwe.

Ukraine irondera kwegamira ku burengero

Imbuto z’iyi ntambara zabibwe mu 2013, igihe Moscou irondera kwumvisha umukuru w’igihugu ca Ukraine yari ahengamiye ku Burusiya ico gihe gufuta amasezerano yari ategekanijwe hagati y’iki gihugu n’Ubumwe bwa Bulaya, ivyatumye haduka imyiyerekano yatumye ubutegetsi bwiwe butembagara, maze Uburusiya nabwo bugaca bwigarurira Crimea bwongera buteza intambara yatumye inyeshamba zigarurira ubutaka mu buseruko bw’igihugu.

Inyuma y’amezi ane igitero c’Uburusiya gitanguye, Ubumwe bwa Bulaya bwaciye bwakira igisabo ca Ukraine co kwinjira muri uyu muryango, Kyiv ikaba iriko irasatira kugira ngo yemererwe vuba bishoboka.

Uyu mukuru w’igihugu c’Uburusiya amaze igihe kirekire yarashaka kandi kuzibira Ukraine kugira ngo ntiyinjire mw’ishirahamwe OTAN ryo kwivunira umwansi hamwe, ariko ivyo yagiriza uru runani ruhurikiyemwo ibihugu vy’uburengero vyari ibinyoma.

Hampande y’uko bivugwa ko Ukraine yemeranije n’Uburusiya imbere y’intambara ko izoguma hanze ya OTAN, Perezida Zelensky mu kwa gatatu, yaremeye ko Ukraine itazokwigera yegamira uruhande na rumwe, kandi ntinatunge ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri: "Uku ni ukuri kandi gutegerezwa kwemerwa uku nyene", niko yavuze.

None OTAN niyo yokwagirizwa iyi ntambara?

Ibihugu bihurikiye muri OTAN bibandanya birungikira Ukraine ibirwanisho vyo gukingira ibisagara vyayo, hamwe n’ibisasu vya misire, vya muzinga na za ndege zitagira abadereva (drones), ivyatumye ibintu bitoroha ku Burusiya.

Ariko si vyo vyokwagirizwa iyi ntambara. OTAN ivuga ko yarondeye kwagura akarere kubera iterabwoba ry’Uburusiya – Suede na Finland bikaba vyasavye kwinjira kubera iki gitero kuri Ukraine.

Amajambo yo kwagiriza OTAN ko iriko itera yiyagurira akarere amaja mu buseruko ni amajambo avugwa n’Uburusiya yakwiragiye hamwe hamwe ku mugabane wa Bulaya.

Imbere y’intambara, Perezida Putin yasavye OTAN gusubira ku masezerano yo mu 1997 hanyuma ikure ingabo zayo n’ibigo vya gisirikare mu burere bwa Bulaya yo hagati, ubwa Bulaya y’ubuseruko hamwe no mu bihugu vya Baltic.

Kuri we, Uburengero bwaremeye mu 1990 ko OTAN itari kurenzako n’isantimetero imwe amaja mu buseruko, kandi niko vyagenze. Aha hari imbere y’uko icahoze ari Reta Zunze Ubumwe z’Abasoviyeti (URSS/USSR) gisambuka, ibi bikaba ari vyo bari bemereye uwari umukuru w’igihugu ico gihe , Mikhail Gorbachev, bikaba vyaraba cane cane Ubudagi bw’Ubuseruko mu rwego rwo gushira hamwe n’Ubudagi bw’uburengero kugira bibe igihugu kimwe c’Ubudagi.

Mu nyuma Gorbachev yahavuye avuga ico gihe ko “ata vyo kwagura akarere ka OTAN vyari vyaganiriweko”.

OTAN ibandanya ivuga ko itigeze yipfuza kurungika ingabo zayo ku ruhande rw’Ubuseruko, gushika Uburusiya bwigaruriye Crimea mu 2014 mu nzira iteye kubiri n’amategeko.