Are the Democrats heading for a midterms landslide?

How confident should Democrats be about surprise new polling which puts them ahead in deep Republican territory? In states such as Kansas which haven’t elected a Democratic senator since 1932, Democrat candidates are doing well - why is that, and how much can we trust the polls?

The party’s hope for a blue wave in this year’s midterm elections rest on their ability to flip four Republican seats in the Senate. While the polls suggest the Democrats are ahead in Texas, Alaska and Ohio, the picture is more complicated in Democratic states like Maine and Michigan, which many believe the party must hold on to if they’re to reclaim control of Congress.

Sarah and Justin unpack the latest polls and what it tell us about Democrat and Republican strategy before we speak to the Democratic strategist and pollster John Anzalone. He’s currently working on Roy Cooper’s Senate campaign in North Carolina and most recently served on Joe Biden’s successful 2020 campaign. He tell us why Democrats should be cautious about hopes for a blue wave in November and the issues candidates need to focus on in the run-up to polling day.

HOSTS:
• Sarah Smith, BBC North America Editor
• Justin Webb, BBC Radio 4 Presenter

GET IN TOUCH:
• Join our online community: https://discord.gg/qSrxqNcmRB
• Send us a message or voice note via WhatsApp to +44 330 123 9480
• Email Americast@bbc.co.uk
• Or use #Americast

This episode was made by George Dabby with Alix Pickles and Nik Sindle. The technical producer was Ben Andrews. The series producer is Purvee Pattni. The senior news editor is Sam Bonham.

If you want to be notified every time we publish a new episode, please subscribe to us on BBC Sounds by hitting the subscribe button on the app.

You can now listen to Americast on a smart speaker. If you want to listen, just say "Ask BBC Sounds to play Americast”. It works on most smart speakers.

US Election Unspun: Sign up for Anthony’s BBC newsletter: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68093155

Americast is part of the BBC News Podcasts family of podcasts. The team that makes Americast also makes lots of other podcasts, including Newscast. If you enjoy Americast (and if you're reading this then you hopefully do), then we think that you will enjoy some of our other pods too. See links below.

Newscast: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/series/p05299nl
Top Comment: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/brand/m001mssm
Radical: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/brand/p0gg4k6r
The Global Story: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/brand/w13xtvsd