BAFTA Predictions

Paul Arendt gives us his tips for the top.

The BAFTAs are nearly upon us, so it’s time to shuffle the tarot cards, polish the crystal ball and sift through the entrails of a goat as we predict the big winners of 2008. Take a trip with us into the not-too-distant future...

First up, let’s talk about Atonement. We predict that Joe Wright’s lavish period drama will nab the biggest gongs, for best film and best director. It’s not necessarily the best film in contention, but it is very British (and BAFTA is nothing if not patriotic); it's based on a critically adored novel, widely seen by the public and doing good business in America. That automatically puts it ahead of Shane Meadows’ smaller-scale This Is England, and Anton Corbijn’s brilliant but miserable Control, either of which could take home the Best British Film award as a consolation.

The Bourne Ultimatum is an interesting one. Unusually for an action flick, it’s been nominated in the big categories including Best British Film, although it may just be there to remind Hollywood that, hey, we make blockbusters too. Casino Royale filled the same gap last year, but the film was shut out from winners’ enclosure. Basically, Bourne is on the list for glam, but could well clean up on the technical awards.

Of the actors, we reckon Daniel Day-Lewis is a shoo-in for his turn in There Will Be Blood, and deservedly so. Best actress, however, is a little more tricky. Will BAFTA really give it to Cate Blanchett for the ludicrous Elizabeth: The Golden Age? Will it be the little known Ellen Page for her performance in Juno, a film that nobody here has even seen yet? Nah. In the absence of an obvious winner, we reckon it has to be Keira Knightley’s year: if they don’t give her a gong soon, she’ll stop coming to the ceremony.

Finally, the supporting turns. With no Judi Dench flicks to worry about this year, Best Supporting Actress is an open field. We’d like to see Kelly McDonald honoured for her turn in No Country For Old Men, but Samantha Morton (for Control) or Saoirse Ronan (Atonement) would be fine too. In reality it will probably go to Cate Blanchett for her musical turn as Bob Dylan in I’m Not There. As for best supporting actor, it’s a toss-up between Tommy Lee Jones and Javier Bardem in No Country For Old Men.

Our predictions...

BEST FILM: ATONEMENT

BEST BRITISH FILM: CONTROL or THIS IS ENGLAND

BEST DIRECTOR: JOE WRIGHT (ATONEMENT)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: SHANE MEADOWS (THIS IS ENGLAND)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
CHRISTOPHER HAMPTON (ATONEMENT)

FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE:
THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY

LEADING ACTOR: DANIEL DAY-LEWIS (THERE WILL BE BLOOD)

LEADING ACTRESS: KEIRA KNIGHTLEY (ATONEMENT)

SUPPORTING ACTOR:
JAVIER BARDEM or TOMMY LEE JONES (NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: CATE BLANCHETT (I’M NOT THERE)

Did we get it right? Find out at the star-studded ceremony, starting at 9pm on BBC One, February 10th.